49 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
49 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
---
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description: Think through consequences of consequences
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argument-hint: [action or leave blank for current context]
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---
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<objective>
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Apply second-order thinking to $ARGUMENTS (or the current discussion if no arguments provided).
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Ask: "And then what?" First-order thinking stops at immediate effects. Second-order thinking follows the chain.
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</objective>
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<process>
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1. State the action or decision
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2. Identify first-order effects (immediate, obvious consequences)
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3. For each first-order effect, ask "And then what happens?"
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4. Continue to third-order if significant
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5. Identify delayed consequences that change the calculus
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6. Assess whether the action is still worth it after full chain analysis
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</process>
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<output_format>
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**Action:** [what's being considered]
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**First-Order Effects:** (Immediate)
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- [Effect 1]
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- [Effect 2]
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**Second-Order Effects:** (And then what?)
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- [Effect 1] → leads to → [Consequence]
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- [Effect 2] → leads to → [Consequence]
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**Third-Order Effects:** (And then?)
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- [Key downstream consequences]
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**Delayed Consequences:**
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[Effects that aren't obvious initially but matter long-term]
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**Revised Assessment:**
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After tracing the chain, this action [is/isn't] worth it because...
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</output_format>
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<success_criteria>
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- Traces causal chains beyond obvious effects
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- Identifies feedback loops and unintended consequences
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- Reveals delayed costs or benefits
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- Distinguishes actions that compound well from those that don't
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- Prevents "seemed like a good idea at the time" regret
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</success_criteria>
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