---
description: Think through consequences of consequences
argument-hint: [action or leave blank for current context]
---

<objective>
Apply second-order thinking to $ARGUMENTS (or the current discussion if no arguments provided).

Ask: "And then what?" First-order thinking stops at immediate effects. Second-order thinking follows the chain.
</objective>

<process>
1. State the action or decision
2. Identify first-order effects (immediate, obvious consequences)
3. For each first-order effect, ask "And then what happens?"
4. Continue to third-order if significant
5. Identify delayed consequences that change the calculus
6. Assess whether the action is still worth it after full chain analysis
</process>

<output_format>
**Action:** [what's being considered]

**First-Order Effects:** (Immediate)
- [Effect 1]
- [Effect 2]

**Second-Order Effects:** (And then what?)
- [Effect 1] → leads to → [Consequence]
- [Effect 2] → leads to → [Consequence]

**Third-Order Effects:** (And then?)
- [Key downstream consequences]

**Delayed Consequences:**
[Effects that aren't obvious initially but matter long-term]

**Revised Assessment:**
After tracing the chain, this action [is/isn't] worth it because...
</output_format>

<success_criteria>
- Traces causal chains beyond obvious effects
- Identifies feedback loops and unintended consequences
- Reveals delayed costs or benefits
- Distinguishes actions that compound well from those that don't
- Prevents "seemed like a good idea at the time" regret
</success_criteria>