305 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
305 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
# Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals Templates
|
||
|
||
Quick-start templates for counterfactual analysis, scenario planning, and pre-mortem exercises.
|
||
|
||
## Focal Question Template
|
||
|
||
**What are you exploring?**
|
||
|
||
**Type**: [Counterfactual (past) / Hypothetical (future)]
|
||
|
||
**Core question**:
|
||
- Counterfactual: "What would have happened if [X] had been different?"
|
||
- Hypothetical: "What could happen if [X] occurs in the future?"
|
||
|
||
**Context**: [What decision, event, or situation are you analyzing?]
|
||
|
||
**Time frame**: [Past event date / Future time horizon (6 months, 1 year, 5 years)]
|
||
|
||
**Purpose**: [What do you hope to learn? Understand causality? Identify risks? Test assumptions?]
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Counterfactual Analysis Template
|
||
|
||
**Actual outcome** (what happened):
|
||
- Decision made: [What did we actually do?]
|
||
- Outcome: [What resulted?]
|
||
- Key metrics: [Quantify results]
|
||
|
||
**Counterfactual** (what if we had done differently):
|
||
- Alternative decision: "What if we had [done X instead]?"
|
||
- Hypothesized outcome: [What would have happened?]
|
||
- Reasoning: [WHY would outcome be different? Specify causal mechanism]
|
||
|
||
**Evidence for counterfactual**:
|
||
- Analogies: [Similar cases where X led to Y]
|
||
- Data: [Market data, competitor examples, historical patterns]
|
||
- Expert opinion: [What do domain experts say?]
|
||
|
||
**Causal insight**:
|
||
- What mattered: [Which factor was causal?]
|
||
- What didn't matter: [Which factors were irrelevant?]
|
||
- Lesson learned: [What should we do differently next time?]
|
||
|
||
**Example**:
|
||
- **Actual**: Launched in US first, 10k users in 6 months
|
||
- **Counterfactual**: "What if we had launched in EU first?"
|
||
- **Hypothesized outcome**: 5k users (smaller market, slower adoption)
|
||
- **Reasoning**: EU market 40% size of US, GDPR compliance slows growth
|
||
- **Insight**: US-first was right call. Market size matters more than competition.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Pre-Mortem Template
|
||
|
||
**Project/Decision**: [What are you launching or deciding?]
|
||
|
||
**Future date**: "It is [6 months / 1 year] from now..."
|
||
|
||
**Assumed outcome**: "...and the [project has failed / decision was disastrous]."
|
||
|
||
**Individual brainstorm** (5 min, silent):
|
||
Each person writes 3-5 reasons why it failed.
|
||
|
||
1. [Failure reason 1]
|
||
2. [Failure reason 2]
|
||
3. [Failure reason 3]
|
||
4. [Failure reason 4]
|
||
5. [Failure reason 5]
|
||
|
||
**Consolidate** (round-robin sharing):
|
||
- [Consolidated failure cause 1]
|
||
- [Consolidated failure cause 2]
|
||
- [Consolidated failure cause 3]
|
||
- [Consolidated failure cause 4]
|
||
- [Consolidated failure cause 5]
|
||
...
|
||
|
||
**Vote on top risks** (dot voting):
|
||
|
||
| Risk | Votes | Likelihood | Impact | Priority |
|
||
|------|-------|------------|--------|----------|
|
||
| [Risk 1] | 8 | High | High | ⚠ Critical |
|
||
| [Risk 2] | 6 | Medium | High | ⚠ High |
|
||
| [Risk 3] | 4 | High | Medium | Medium |
|
||
| [Risk 4] | 2 | Low | Low | Low |
|
||
|
||
**Mitigation actions** (top 3-5 risks):
|
||
|
||
| Risk | Mitigation | Owner | Deadline |
|
||
|------|------------|-------|----------|
|
||
| [Risk 1] | [Specific action to prevent/reduce] | [Name] | [Date] |
|
||
| [Risk 2] | [Specific action] | [Name] | [Date] |
|
||
| [Risk 3] | [Specific action] | [Name] | [Date] |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Scenario Generation Template
|
||
|
||
**Time horizon**: [6 months / 1 year / 3 years / 5 years]
|
||
|
||
**Key uncertainties** (2-3 factors that most shape the future):
|
||
1. [Uncertainty 1, e.g., "Market adoption rate"]
|
||
2. [Uncertainty 2, e.g., "Competitive intensity"]
|
||
3. [Uncertainty 3, e.g., "Regulatory environment"]
|
||
|
||
### Option A: Three Scenarios
|
||
|
||
**Optimistic scenario** (Probability: [%]):
|
||
- Name: "[Descriptive name]"
|
||
- Description: [1-2 paragraphs describing this future]
|
||
- Key drivers: [What makes this happen?]
|
||
- Implications: [What does this mean for us?]
|
||
|
||
**Baseline scenario** (Probability: [%]):
|
||
- Name: "[Descriptive name]"
|
||
- Description: [1-2 paragraphs]
|
||
- Key drivers: [What makes this happen?]
|
||
- Implications: [What does this mean for us?]
|
||
|
||
**Pessimistic scenario** (Probability: [%]):
|
||
- Name: "[Descriptive name]"
|
||
- Description: [1-2 paragraphs]
|
||
- Key drivers: [What makes this happen?]
|
||
- Implications: [What does this mean for us?]
|
||
|
||
### Option B: 2×2 Matrix
|
||
|
||
**Uncertainty 1**: [e.g., Market adoption] - Axes: [Slow / Fast]
|
||
**Uncertainty 2**: [e.g., Regulation] - Axes: [Strict / Loose]
|
||
|
||
| | **Slow Adoption** | **Fast Adoption** |
|
||
|---|---|---|
|
||
| **Strict Regulation** | **Scenario 1**: "[Name]"<br>[Description] | **Scenario 2**: "[Name]"<br>[Description] |
|
||
| **Loose Regulation** | **Scenario 3**: "[Name]"<br>[Description] | **Scenario 4**: "[Name]"<br>[Description] |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Scenario Development Template
|
||
|
||
**Scenario name**: "[Memorable title]"
|
||
|
||
**Time**: [Future date, e.g., "January 2026"]
|
||
|
||
**Narrative** (tell the story, make it vivid):
|
||
[2-4 paragraphs describing this world. Use present tense, concrete details, make it feel real.]
|
||
|
||
**Key assumptions**:
|
||
- [Assumption 1: what had to be true for this scenario?]
|
||
- [Assumption 2]
|
||
- [Assumption 3]
|
||
|
||
**Metrics in this world**:
|
||
- [Metric 1]: [Value, e.g., "Market size: $500M"]
|
||
- [Metric 2]: [Value, e.g., "Our market share: 15%"]
|
||
- [Metric 3]: [Value, e.g., "Churn rate: 3%/month"]
|
||
|
||
**Leading indicators** (early signals this scenario is unfolding):
|
||
- [Indicator 1]: [e.g., "If regulation bill passes Q1"]
|
||
- [Indicator 2]: [e.g., "If competitor raises >$50M"]
|
||
- [Indicator 3]: [e.g., "If adoption rate >20% MoM for 3 months"]
|
||
|
||
**Implications for our strategy**:
|
||
- What should we do in this world? [Strategic response]
|
||
- What should we avoid? [Actions that fail in this scenario]
|
||
- What capabilities do we need? [Org/tech requirements]
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Assumption Reversal Template
|
||
|
||
**Current assumption**: [State the belief we take for granted]
|
||
|
||
**Reversed assumption**: "What if [opposite] is true?"
|
||
|
||
**Explore the reversal**:
|
||
- Is it plausible? [Could the reversal actually be true?]
|
||
- Evidence for reversal: [What would suggest our assumption is wrong?]
|
||
- Implications if reversed: [What would we do differently?]
|
||
- New possibilities: [What doors does this open?]
|
||
|
||
**Example**:
|
||
- **Current**: "Customers want more features"
|
||
- **Reversed**: "What if customers want fewer features?"
|
||
- **Plausible?**: Yes (research shows feature bloat frustrates users)
|
||
- **Implications**: Simplify product, remove rarely-used features, focus on core workflow
|
||
- **New possibility**: "Feature-light" positioning vs. competitors
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Stress Test Template
|
||
|
||
**Decision being tested**: [What are we deciding?]
|
||
|
||
**Baseline assumptions**:
|
||
- [Assumption 1]: [Current expectation, e.g., "CAC = $100"]
|
||
- [Assumption 2]: [e.g., "Churn = 5%/month"]
|
||
- [Assumption 3]: [e.g., "Market size = $1B"]
|
||
|
||
**Stress scenario 1: Optimistic**
|
||
- [Assumption 1]: [Best case, e.g., "CAC = $50"]
|
||
- [Assumption 2]: [e.g., "Churn = 2%/month"]
|
||
- [Assumption 3]: [e.g., "Market size = $2B"]
|
||
- **Decision still valid?**: [Yes/No, with explanation]
|
||
|
||
**Stress scenario 2: Pessimistic**
|
||
- [Assumption 1]: [Worst case, e.g., "CAC = $200"]
|
||
- [Assumption 2]: [e.g., "Churn = 10%/month"]
|
||
- [Assumption 3]: [e.g., "Market size = $500M"]
|
||
- **Decision still valid?**: [Yes/No, with explanation]
|
||
|
||
**Stress scenario 3: Black swan**
|
||
- [Extreme event]: [e.g., "Major competitor offers product free"]
|
||
- **Decision still valid?**: [Yes/No, with explanation]
|
||
|
||
**Conclusion**:
|
||
- Decision robust? [Does it hold across scenarios?]
|
||
- Hedges needed? [What can we do to protect downside?]
|
||
- Go/no-go? [Final decision]
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Action Extraction Template
|
||
|
||
**Scenarios analyzed**: [List 2-4 scenarios explored]
|
||
|
||
**Common actions** (work across all scenarios):
|
||
- [Action 1]: [What should we do regardless of which future unfolds?]
|
||
- [Action 2]
|
||
- [Action 3]
|
||
|
||
**Hedges** (protect against downside scenarios):
|
||
- [Hedge 1]: [What reduces risk if pessimistic scenario happens?]
|
||
- [Hedge 2]
|
||
|
||
**Options** (prepare for upside scenarios):
|
||
- [Option 1]: [What positions us to capture value if optimistic scenario happens?]
|
||
- [Option 2]
|
||
|
||
**Monitoring** (track which scenario unfolding):
|
||
- [Indicator 1]: [What to watch, e.g., "Track regulation votes monthly"]
|
||
- [Indicator 2]: [e.g., "Monitor competitor funding rounds"]
|
||
- [Indicator 3]: [e.g., "Measure adoption rate vs. baseline"]
|
||
|
||
**Decision points** (when to adjust):
|
||
- If [indicator crosses threshold], then [action]
|
||
- If [indicator crosses threshold], then [action]
|
||
|
||
**Example**:
|
||
- **Common**: Build core product, hire team, launch beta
|
||
- **Hedge**: Keep burn low, maintain 18-month runway for slow-growth scenario
|
||
- **Option**: Prepare enterprise sales motion if early adoption strong
|
||
- **Monitor**: Track adoption rate monthly; if >15% MoM for 3 months, trigger enterprise hiring
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Quick Examples
|
||
|
||
### Example 1: Product Launch Pre-Mortem
|
||
|
||
**Project**: Launch new mobile app, target 50k downloads in 6 months
|
||
|
||
**Pre-mortem** (failure causes):
|
||
1. App crashes on Android (not tested thoroughly)
|
||
2. Marketing budget too small (couldn't acquire users at scale)
|
||
3. Onboarding too complex (80% drop-off after signup)
|
||
4. Competitor launched free version (undercut pricing)
|
||
5. App Store rejection (didn't follow guidelines)
|
||
|
||
**Mitigation**:
|
||
- Comprehensive Android testing before launch
|
||
- Double marketing budget or lower target
|
||
- Simplify onboarding to 3 steps max
|
||
- Monitor competitor activity, prepare pricing flex
|
||
- Review App Store guidelines, get pre-approval
|
||
|
||
### Example 2: Counterfactual Learning
|
||
|
||
**Actual**: Raised $5M Series A, 18-month runway, hired 15 people
|
||
|
||
**Outcome**: Burned through runway in 14 months, failed to reach next milestone
|
||
|
||
**Counterfactual**: "What if we had raised $3M instead?"
|
||
- **Hypothesized outcome**: 12-month runway, hired 8 people, reached profitability
|
||
- **Reasoning**: Smaller team = lower burn, forced focus on revenue, faster decisions
|
||
- **Insight**: Raising more money led to premature scaling. Constraint is good early-stage.
|
||
|
||
### Example 3: Strategic Scenarios (3 Futures)
|
||
|
||
**Time**: 2026 (2 years out)
|
||
|
||
**Optimistic ("Market Leader")**:
|
||
- 40% market share, $10M ARR, profitability
|
||
- Drivers: Product-market fit strong, viral growth, weak competition
|
||
|
||
**Baseline ("Steady Climb")**:
|
||
- 15% market share, $3M ARR, break-even
|
||
- Drivers: Expected growth, moderate competition, steady execution
|
||
|
||
**Pessimistic ("Survival Mode")**:
|
||
- 5% market share, $500k ARR, burning cash
|
||
- Drivers: Strong competitor launches, slow adoption, pivot needed
|
||
|
||
**Implications**: Build for "Steady Climb", hedge for "Survival" (low burn), prepare for "Leader" (scale infrastructure).
|