gh-lyndonkl-claude/skills/scout-mindset-bias-check/resources/cognitive-bias-catalog.md

# Cognitive Bias Catalog

## Quick Reference Table

| Bias | Category | Impact | Detection | Remediation |
|------|----------|--------|-----------|-------------|
| Confirmation | Confirmation | Seek supporting evidence only | Search for disconfirming evidence? | Red team your forecast |
| Desirability | Confirmation | Want outcome → believe it's likely | Do I want this outcome? | Outsource to neutral party |
| Availability | Availability | Recent/vivid events dominate | What recent news influenced me? | Look up actual statistics |
| Recency | Availability | Overweight recent data | Considering full history? | Expand time window |
| Anchoring | Anchoring | First number sticks | Too close to initial number? | Generate estimate first |
| Affect | Affect | Feelings override data | How do I feel about this? | Acknowledge, then set aside |
| Loss Aversion | Affect | Overweight downside | Weighting losses more? | Evaluate symmetrically |
| Overconfidence | Overconfidence | Intervals too narrow | Track calibration | Widen intervals to 20-80% |
| Dunning-Kruger | Overconfidence | Novices overestimate | How experienced am I? | Seek expert feedback |
| Optimism | Overconfidence | "Won't happen to me" | What's the base rate? | Apply base rate to self |
| Pessimism | Overconfidence | Overweight negatives | Only considering downsides? | List positive scenarios |
| Attribution Error | Attribution | Blame person, not situation | What situational factors? | Consider constraints first |
| Self-Serving | Attribution | Success=skill, failure=luck | Consistent attribution? | Same standard for both |
| Framing | Framing | Presentation changes answer | How is this framed? | Rephrase multiple ways |
| Narrative Fallacy | Framing | Simple stories mislead | Story too clean? | Prefer stats over stories |
| Sunk Cost | Temporal | Can't abandon past investment | Only future costs/benefits? | Decide as if starting fresh |
| Hindsight | Temporal | "Knew it all along" | Written record of prediction? | Record forecasts beforehand |
| Planning Fallacy | Temporal | Underestimate time/cost | Reference class timeline? | Add 2-3x buffer |
| Outcome Bias | Temporal | Judge by result not process | Evaluating process or outcome? | Judge by info available then |
| Clustering Illusion | Pattern | See patterns in randomness | Statistically significant? | Test significance |
| Gambler's Fallacy | Pattern | Expect short-term balancing | Are events independent? | Use actual probability |
| Base Rate Neglect | Bayesian | Ignore prior probabilities | Did I start with base rate? | Always start with base rate |
| Conjunction Fallacy | Bayesian | Specific > general | Is A&B > A alone? | P(A&B) ≤ P(A) always |
| Halo Effect | Social | One trait colors everything | Generalizing from one trait? | Assess dimensions separately |
| Authority Bias | Social | Overweight expert opinions | Expert's track record? | Evaluate evidence not credentials |
| Peak-End | Memory | Remember peaks/endings only | Remembering whole sequence? | Review full historical record |

---

## Confirmation Cluster

### Confirmation Bias
**Definition:** Search for, interpret, and recall information that confirms pre-existing beliefs.

**Affects forecasting:** Only look for supporting evidence, discount contradictions, selective memory.

**Detect:** Did I search for disconfirming evidence? Can I steelman the opposite view?

**Remediate:** Red team your forecast, list disconfirming evidence first, ask "How could I be wrong?"

### Desirability Bias
**Definition:** Believing outcomes you want are more likely than they are.

**Affects forecasting:** Bullish on own startup, wishful thinking masquerading as analysis.

**Detect:** Do I want this outcome? Am I emotionally invested?

**Remediate:** Outsource to neutral party, imagine opposite outcome, forecast before declaring preference.

---

## Availability Cluster

### Availability Heuristic
**Definition:** Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind.

**Affects forecasting:** Overestimate vivid risks (terrorism), underestimate mundane (heart disease), media coverage distorts frequency perception.

**Detect:** What recent news am I thinking of? Is this vivid/emotional/recent?

**Remediate:** Look up actual statistics, use reference class not memorable examples.

### Recency Bias
**Definition:** Overweighting recent events relative to historical patterns.

**Affects forecasting:** Extrapolate recent trends linearly, forget cycles and mean reversion.

**Detect:** How much history am I considering? Is forecast just recent trend?

**Remediate:** Expand time window (decades not months), check for cyclicality.

---

## Anchoring Cluster

### Anchoring Bias
**Definition:** Over-relying on first piece of information encountered.

**Affects forecasting:** First number becomes estimate, can't adjust sufficiently from anchor.

**Detect:** What was first number I heard? Am I too close to it?

**Remediate:** Generate own estimate first, use multiple independent sources.

### Priming
**Definition:** Prior stimulus influences subsequent response.

**Affects forecasting:** Reading disaster primes pessimism, context shapes judgment unconsciously.

**Detect:** What did I just read/see/hear? Is mood affecting forecast?

**Remediate:** Clear mind before forecasting, wait between exposure and estimation.

---

## Affect Cluster

### Affect Heuristic
**Definition:** Letting feelings about something determine beliefs about it.

**Affects forecasting:** Like it → think it's safe, dislike it → think it's dangerous.

**Detect:** How do I feel about this? Would I forecast differently if neutral?

**Remediate:** Acknowledge emotion then set aside, focus on base rates and evidence.

### Loss Aversion
**Definition:** Losses hurt more than equivalent gains feel good (2:1 ratio).

**Affects forecasting:** Overweight downside scenarios, status quo bias, asymmetric risk evaluation.

**Detect:** Am I weighting losses more? Would I accept bet if gains/losses swapped?

**Remediate:** Evaluate gains and losses symmetrically, use expected value calculation.

---

## Overconfidence Cluster

### Overconfidence Bias
**Definition:** Confidence exceeds actual accuracy.

**Affects forecasting:** 90% intervals capture truth 50% of time, narrow ranges, extreme probabilities.

**Detect:** Track calibration, are intervals too narrow? Can I be surprised?

**Remediate:** Widen confidence intervals, track calibration, use 20-80% as default.

### Dunning-Kruger Effect
**Definition:** Unskilled overestimate competence; experts underestimate.

**Affects forecasting:** Novices predict with false precision, don't know what they don't know.

**Detect:** How experienced am I in this domain? Do experts agree?

**Remediate:** If novice widen intervals, seek expert feedback, learn domain deeply first.

### Optimism Bias
**Definition:** Believing you're less likely than others to experience negatives.

**Affects forecasting:** "My startup is different" (90% fail), "This time is different" (rarely is).

**Detect:** What's base rate for people like me? Am I assuming I'm special?

**Remediate:** Use reference class for yourself, apply base rates, assume average then adjust slightly.

### Pessimism Bias
**Definition:** Overweighting negative outcomes, underweighting positive.

**Affects forecasting:** Disaster predictions rarely materialize, underestimate human adaptability.

**Detect:** Only considering downsides? What positive scenarios missing?

**Remediate:** Explicitly list positive scenarios, consider adaptive responses.

---

## Attribution Cluster

### Fundamental Attribution Error
**Definition:** Overattribute behavior to personality, underattribute to situation.

**Affects forecasting:** "CEO is brilliant" ignores market conditions, predict based on person not circumstances.

**Detect:** What situational factors am I ignoring? How much is luck vs. skill?

**Remediate:** Consider situational constraints first, estimate luck vs. skill proportion.

### Self-Serving Bias
**Definition:** Attribute success to skill, failure to bad luck.

**Affects forecasting:** Can't learn from mistakes (was luck!), overconfident after wins (was skill!).

**Detect:** Would I explain someone else's outcome this way? Do I attribute consistently?

**Remediate:** Apply same standard to wins and losses, assume 50% luck/50% skill, focus on process.

---

## Framing Cluster

### Framing Effect
**Definition:** Same information, different presentation, different decision.

**Affects forecasting:** "90% survival" vs "10% death" changes estimate, format matters.

**Detect:** How is question framed? Do I get same answer both ways?

**Remediate:** Rephrase multiple ways, convert to neutral format, use frequency (100 out of 1000).

### Narrative Fallacy
**Definition:** Constructing simple stories to explain complex reality.

**Affects forecasting:** Post-hoc explanations feel compelling, smooth narratives overpower messy data.

**Detect:** Is story too clean? Can I fit multiple narratives to same data?

**Remediate:** Prefer statistics over stories, generate alternative narratives, use base rates.

---

## Temporal Biases

### Sunk Cost Fallacy
**Definition:** Continuing endeavor because of past investment, not future value.

**Affects forecasting:** "Invested $1M, can't stop now", hold losing positions too long.

**Detect:** If I started today, would I choose this? Considering only future costs/benefits?

**Remediate:** Consider only forward-looking value, treat sunk costs as irrelevant.

### Hindsight Bias
**Definition:** After outcome known, "I knew it all along."

**Affects forecasting:** Can't recall prior uncertainty, overestimate predictability, can't learn from surprises.

**Detect:** What did I actually predict beforehand? Written record exists?

**Remediate:** Write forecasts before outcome, record confidence levels, review predictions regularly.

### Planning Fallacy
**Definition:** Underestimate time, costs, risks; overestimate benefits.

**Affects forecasting:** Projects take 2-3x longer than planned, inside view ignores reference class.

**Detect:** How long did similar projects take? Using inside view only?

**Remediate:** Use reference class forecasting, add 2-3x buffer, consider outside view first.

### Outcome Bias
**Definition:** Judging decision quality by result, not by information available at time.

**Affects forecasting:** Good outcome ≠ good decision, can't separate luck from skill.

**Detect:** What did I know when I decided? Evaluating process or outcome?

**Remediate:** Judge decisions by process not results, evaluate with info available then.

---

## Pattern Recognition Biases

### Clustering Illusion
**Definition:** Seeing patterns in random data.

**Affects forecasting:** "Winning streak" in random sequence, stock "trends" that are noise, "hot hand" fallacy.

**Detect:** Is this statistically significant? Could this be random chance?

**Remediate:** Test statistical significance, use appropriate sample size, consider null hypothesis.

### Gambler's Fallacy
**Definition:** Believing random events "balance out" in short run.

**Affects forecasting:** "Due for a win" after losses, expecting mean reversion too quickly.

**Detect:** Are these events independent? Does past affect future probability?

**Remediate:** Recognize independent events, don't expect short-term balancing.

---

## Bayesian Reasoning Failures

### Base Rate Neglect
**Definition:** Ignoring prior probabilities, focusing only on new evidence.

**Affects forecasting:** "Test is 90% accurate" ignores base rate, vivid case study overrides statistics.

**Detect:** What's the base rate? Did I start with prior probability?

**Remediate:** Always start with base rate, update incrementally with evidence.

### Conjunction Fallacy
**Definition:** Believing specific scenario is more probable than general one.

**Affects forecasting:** "Librarian who likes poetry" > "Librarian", detailed scenarios feel more likely.

**Detect:** Is A&B more likely than A alone? Confusing plausibility with probability?

**Remediate:** Remember P(A&B) ≤ P(A), strip away narrative details.

---

## Social Biases

### Halo Effect
**Definition:** One positive trait colors perception of everything else.

**Affects forecasting:** Successful CEO → good at everything, one win → forecaster must be skilled.

**Detect:** Am I generalizing from one trait? Are dimensions actually correlated?

**Remediate:** Assess dimensions separately, don't assume correlation, judge each forecast independently.

### Authority Bias
**Definition:** Overweight opinions of authorities, underweight evidence.

**Affects forecasting:** "Expert said so" → must be true, defer to credentials over data.

**Detect:** What's expert's track record? Does evidence support claim?

**Remediate:** Evaluate expert track record, consider evidence not just credentials.

---

## Memory Biases

### Peak-End Rule
**Definition:** Judging experience by peak and end, ignoring duration and average.

**Affects forecasting:** Remember market peak, ignore average returns, distorted recall of sequences.

**Detect:** Am I remembering whole sequence? What was average not just peak/end?

**Remediate:** Review full historical record, calculate averages not memorable moments.

### Rosy Retrospection
**Definition:** Remembering past as better than it was.

**Affects forecasting:** "Things were better in old days", underestimate historical problems.

**Detect:** What do contemporary records show? Am I romanticizing the past?

**Remediate:** Consult historical data not memory, read contemporary accounts.

---

## Application to Forecasting

### Pre-Forecast Checklist
1. What's the base rate? (Base rate neglect)
2. Am I anchored on a number? (Anchoring)
3. Do I want this outcome? (Desirability bias)
4. What recent events am I recalling? (Availability)
5. Am I overconfident? (Overconfidence)

### During Forecast
1. Did I search for disconfirming evidence? (Confirmation)
2. Am I using inside or outside view? (Planning fallacy)
3. Is this pattern real or random? (Clustering illusion)
4. Am I framing this question neutrally? (Framing)
5. What would change my mind? (Motivated reasoning)

### Post-Forecast Review
1. Record what I predicted before (Hindsight bias)
2. Judge decision by process, not outcome (Outcome bias)
3. Attribute success/failure consistently (Self-serving bias)
4. Update calibration tracking (Overconfidence)
5. What did I learn? (Growth mindset)

---

## Bias Remediation Framework

**Five principles:**
1. **Awareness:** Know which biases affect you most
2. **Process:** Use checklists and frameworks
3. **Calibration:** Track accuracy over time
4. **Humility:** Assume you're biased, not immune
5. **Updating:** Learn from mistakes, adjust process

**Key insight:** You can't eliminate biases, but you can design systems that compensate for them.

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