9.5 KiB
Portfolio Roadmapping Bets Template
Table of Contents
- Workflow
- Portfolio Roadmap Template
- Bet Template
- Guidance for Each Section
- Quick Patterns
- Quality Checklist
Workflow
Copy this checklist and track your progress:
Portfolio Roadmapping Bets Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define theme and constraints
- [ ] Step 2: Inventory and size bets
- [ ] Step 3: Sequence across horizons
- [ ] Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
- [ ] Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Step 1: Define theme and constraints
Fill out Portfolio Context section with strategic theme, time horizon definitions, resource constraints, and portfolio balance targets.
Step 2: Inventory and size bets
List all candidate initiatives using Bet Template. Size each by effort (S/M/L/XL) and impact (1x/3x/10x). See Guidance: Sizing Bets for examples.
Step 3: Sequence across horizons
Assign bets to H1/H2/H3 based on dependencies, capacity, and strategic timing. Fill out Horizon 1, Horizon 2, Horizon 3 sections.
Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
For each bet, define success (scale) and failure (exit) criteria with metrics and timelines. See Guidance: Exit & Scale Criteria.
Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Complete Portfolio Balance Summary. Check risk distribution, horizon mix, capacity feasibility. Use Quality Checklist to validate.
Portfolio Roadmap Template
1. Portfolio Context
Strategic Theme: [What overarching goal drives this portfolio? Example: "Grow marketplace GMV 3x to $300M in 18 months"]
Time Horizons:
- H1 (Now): [Date range, e.g., Jan-Jun 2024] - [Description: shipping, high confidence]
- H2 (Next): [Date range, e.g., Jul-Dec 2024] - [Description: planning/development, medium confidence]
- H3 (Later): [Date range, e.g., Jan-Jun 2025+] - [Description: exploration/research, lower confidence]
Resource Constraints:
- Budget: $[X] total available
- People: [Y engineers, Z designers, etc. - specify capacity by function]
- Time: [Key deadlines: board meeting, fiscal year end, competitive launch, etc.]
Portfolio Balance Targets:
- By Risk: [Example: 70% core / 20% adjacent / 10% transformational]
- By Horizon: [Example: 50% H1 / 30% H2 / 20% H3]
- By Type: [Example: 60% product features / 30% platform / 10% R&D]
Success Metrics: [How will we measure portfolio success? Example: "GMV growth rate, seller retention, buyer NPS"]
2. Bet Inventory
Total Bets: [Count across all horizons]
Effort Distribution:
- Small (1-2 weeks): [Count]
- Medium (1-3 months): [Count]
- Large (3-6 months): [Count]
- X-Large (6-12+ months): [Count]
Impact Distribution:
- 1x (Incremental): [Count]
- 3x (Substantial): [Count]
- 10x (Breakthrough): [Count]
Type Distribution:
- Core (optimize existing): [Count, %]
- Adjacent (extend to new): [Count, %]
- Transformational (new paradigm): [Count, %]
3-5. Horizons (H1/H2/H3)
For each horizon, fill out:
Theme for H[X]: [Focus for this horizon] Capacity Available: [Person-months by function]
Bets: Use Bet Template below for each bet
Summary:
- Total Bets: [Count]
- Total Effort: [Sum] vs Capacity: [X] ✓ or ⚠
- Expected Impact: [All succeed vs risk-adjusted]
- Dependencies: [Critical path or blockers]
6. Portfolio Balance Summary
Risk Distribution:
| Type | Count | % of Bets | % of Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| Adjacent | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| Transformational | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| Total | [Sum] | 100% | 100% |
Target: [e.g., 70% core / 20% adjacent / 10% transformational] Assessment: ✓ Balanced / ⚠ Too conservative / ⚠ Too aggressive
Horizon Distribution:
| Horizon | Count | % of Bets | % of Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 (Now) | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| H2 (Next) | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| H3 (Later) | [X] | [Y%] | [Z%] |
| Total | [Sum] | 100% | 100% |
Target: [e.g., 50% H1 / 30% H2 / 20% H3] Assessment: ✓ Balanced / ⚠ Too short-term / ⚠ Too long-term
Capacity Feasibility:
- H1: [Total effort] / [Capacity] = [X%] utilization (target: ≤80% for 20% slack)
- H2: [Total effort] / [Capacity] = [X%] utilization
- H3: [Total effort] / [Capacity] = [X%] utilization (rough estimate)
Assessment: ✓ Feasible / ⚠ Overcommitted / ⚠ Underutilized
Impact Ambition:
- Strategic Theme Goal: [e.g., "3x revenue = $300M"]
- Portfolio Total Impact (all succeed): [Sum of all bet impacts, e.g., "4.5x revenue"]
- Portfolio Expected Impact (risk-adjusted): [Assume 50% success rate, e.g., "2.25x revenue"]
Assessment: ✓ Ambitious enough / ⚠ Below goal / ⚠ Unrealistic
7. Dependencies & Review Plan
Critical Path: [Must-have sequence, e.g., "Bet A → Bet B → Bet C"] Dependency Map: [Visual or list of dependencies] Risk: [What if key dependencies fail?]
Review Cadence: [Monthly H1, quarterly H2, semi-annual H3] Review Criteria: Exit/scale met? Dependencies on track? Re-scope needed? Iteration: Kill / Pivot / Persevere / Scale framework Next Review: [Date]
Bet Template
Copy this for each bet:
### Bet [Horizon]-[Number]: [Bet Name]
**Owner**: [Name/team]
**Type**: [Core / Adjacent / Transformational]
**Effort**: [S/M/L/XL] - [Estimate]
**Impact**: [1x/3x/10x] - [Metric]
**Dependencies**: [Prerequisites]
**Rationale**: [Why this? Why now?]
**Exit Criteria**: [Kill if...]
**Scale Criteria**: [Double-down if...]
**Status**: [Not Started / In Progress / Shipped / Exited]
Guidance for Each Section
Portfolio Context
- Theme: Specific, measurable, time-bound (e.g., "Grow revenue 3x in 18mo")
- Horizons: H1 >80% confidence, H2 ~60%, H3 ~40%
- Constraints: Realistic capacity, account for unknowns
Sizing Bets
Effort: S (1-2wk), M (1-3mo), L (3-6mo), XL (6-12+mo) Impact: 1x (10-50% lift), 3x (2-5x lift), 10x (breakthrough)
Exit & Scale Criteria
Exit: Time ("90 days"), Metric ("<5%"), Cost (">$100K"), Strategic ("market shifts") Scale: Adoption (">20%"), Engagement (">3x"), Revenue (">$100K"), Efficiency ("LTV/CAC >5")
Example: Bet: Premium tier | Exit: <1000 signups in 90d OR churn >20% | Scale: >5000 signups AND churn <5%
Dependencies
Types: Technical, Learning, Strategic, Resource Document clearly: "Depends on Bet H1-2 (payment API) by March"
Portfolio Balance
Risk: 70% Core / 20% Adjacent / 10% Transformational (adjust: Startup 50/30/20, Enterprise 80/15/5) Horizon: ~50-60% H1, ~25-30% H2, ~15-20% H3
Quick Patterns
Product Portfolio (Features)
H1: 5 quick wins (S/M bets) + 2 strategic features (L bets)
H2: 3 major features (L bets) + 1 platform upgrade (XL)
H3: 1-2 exploratory bets (L/XL)
Balance: 60% incremental, 30% substantial, 10% breakthrough
Technology Portfolio (Platform)
H1: Stability & performance (4 M bets) + 1 migration start (L)
H2: Complete migration (L) + 2 platform improvements (M)
H3: Next-gen architecture research (XL)
Balance: 50% maintain, 30% improve, 20% transform
Innovation Portfolio (R&D)
H1: Scale 2 validated experiments (M) + Run 3 new tests (S)
H2: 2 strategic bets (L) + 4 experiments (S)
H3: 2 moonshots (XL)
Balance: 70% core business, 20% adjacent, 10% transformational
Marketing Portfolio (Campaigns)
H1: Optimize 3 proven channels (M) + Test 2 new channels (S)
H2: Scale winners (M/L) + Brand campaign (L)
H3: New positioning & market entry (L)
Balance: 70% performance, 20% growth tests, 10% brand
Quality Checklist
Before finalizing your portfolio roadmap, verify:
Portfolio Context:
- Strategic theme is specific and measurable (includes target number + timeline)
- Time horizons clearly defined with date ranges
- Resource constraints realistic (budget, people, time)
- Portfolio balance targets explicit (risk mix, horizon mix)
Bets:
- Each bet has owner, type, effort, impact, dependencies
- Effort sized as S/M/L/XL with rough estimates
- Impact quantified (1x/3x/10x) with metric examples
- Exit criteria defined (metric + timeline to kill)
- Scale criteria defined (metric + timeline to double-down)
- Rationale explains why this bet, why now, why this horizon
Sequencing:
- Dependencies mapped (technical, learning, strategic, resource)
- Critical path identified
- Bets assigned to H1/H2/H3 with rationale
- No circular dependencies
Balance:
- Risk distribution checked (core/adjacent/transformational)
- Horizon distribution checked (H1/H2/H3)
- Capacity feasibility validated (effort ≤ capacity × 0.8)
- Impact ambition validated (portfolio total ≥ strategic goal with risk adjustment)
Review Plan:
- Review cadence defined (monthly, quarterly)
- Review criteria specified (what to check)
- Iteration process clear (kill/scale/pivot/add)
- Next review date set
Overall:
- Portfolio ladders up to strategic theme
- No overcommitment (realistic about capacity)
- No under-ambition (portfolio impact < strategic goal)
- Stakeholders aligned on priorities and trade-offs