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---
name: excel-dcf-modeler
description: |
Build discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation models in Excel with free cash flow projections, WACC calculations, and sensitivity analysis for investment banking and corporate finance teams Activates when you request "excel dcf modeler" functionality.
allowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, Grep, Glob, Bash
version: 1.0.0
---
# Excel DCF Modeler
Creates professional DCF valuation models following investment banking standards and best practices.
## When to Invoke This Skill
Automatically load this Skill when the user asks to:
- "Create a DCF model"
- "Build a valuation model"
- "Calculate enterprise value"
- "Value [company name]"
- "DCF for [company]"
- "Discounted cash flow analysis"
- "What's the intrinsic value"
## Model Structure
This Skill creates a complete 4-sheet Excel DCF model:
### Sheet 1: Assumptions
- **Company Information**: Name, ticker, base year, fiscal year end
- **Revenue Growth Rates**: Year 1-5 projections (%)
- **Profitability Metrics**: EBITDA margin, D&A as % of revenue
- **Working Capital**: NWC as % of revenue
- **Capital Expenditures**: CapEx as % of revenue
- **Tax Rate**: Corporate tax rate (%)
- **Terminal Growth**: Long-term growth rate (typically 2-3%)
- **Discount Rate (WACC)**: Weighted average cost of capital
### Sheet 2: Free Cash Flow Projections
```
Revenue (Year 0 - Year 5)
Less: Operating Expenses
= EBITDA
Less: Depreciation & Amortization
= EBIT
Less: Taxes (EBIT × Tax Rate)
= NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)
Add: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Change in Net Working Capital
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow
```
### Sheet 3: Valuation
```
Present Value of FCF (Years 1-5)
Year 1 FCF / (1 + WACC)^1
Year 2 FCF / (1 + WACC)^2
...
Year 5 FCF / (1 + WACC)^5
= Sum of PV(FCF)
Terminal Value Calculation
Terminal FCF = Year 5 FCF × (1 + Terminal Growth Rate)
Terminal Value = Terminal FCF / (WACC - Terminal Growth Rate)
PV of Terminal Value = Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^5
Enterprise Value
= Sum of PV(FCF) + PV(Terminal Value)
Equity Value
= Enterprise Value
- Net Debt
+ Non-Operating Assets
Equity Value per Share
= Equity Value / Shares Outstanding
```
### Sheet 4: Sensitivity Analysis
Two-way sensitivity table showing Enterprise Value sensitivity to:
- **Rows**: WACC (ranging from -2% to +2% of base case)
- **Columns**: Terminal Growth Rate (ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%)
- **Output**: Enterprise Value at each combination
## Step-by-Step Workflow
### 1. Gather Inputs
Ask the user for the following information (provide defaults based on industry averages if user is uncertain):
**Required Inputs:**
- Company name and ticker symbol
- Base year revenue (most recent fiscal year)
- Revenue growth rates for Years 1-5 (e.g., 15%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 6%)
- EBITDA margin % (e.g., 20%)
- Tax rate % (e.g., 21% for US corporations)
**Optional Inputs (use defaults if not provided):**
- D&A as % of revenue (default: 5%)
- CapEx as % of revenue (default: 4%)
- NWC as % of revenue (default: 10%)
- Terminal growth rate (default: 2.5%)
- WACC/discount rate (default: 10%)
- Net debt amount (default: $0)
- Shares outstanding (if calculating per-share value)
### 2. Validate Inputs
Ensure the following before building the model:
- Revenue growth rates are reasonable (typically 0-30%)
- EBITDA margin is positive
- Tax rate is between 0-40%
- Terminal growth < WACC (model won't work if g >= WACC)
- WACC is reasonable (typically 7-15%)
### 3. Build Excel Model
Use the Excel MCP server to:
1. Create new workbook
2. Create 4 sheets: "Assumptions", "FCF Projections", "Valuation", "Sensitivity"
3. Populate assumptions in Sheet 1
4. Build FCF projection formulas in Sheet 2 (link to assumptions)
5. Calculate PV of FCF and Terminal Value in Sheet 3
6. Create sensitivity table in Sheet 4
7. Apply professional formatting:
- Currency format for monetary values
- Percentage format for rates
- Conditional formatting on sensitivity table (green = high value, red = low value)
- Bold headers, freeze panes
- Cell borders for clarity
### 4. Calculate Results
Return to the user:
- Enterprise Value (in millions/billions)
- Equity Value (if net debt provided)
- Equity Value per Share (if shares outstanding provided)
- Key assumptions used
- Link to sensitivity analysis
### 5. Provide Insights
After building the model, provide brief commentary:
- Is the implied valuation reasonable given industry comparables?
- What are the key value drivers? (usually revenue growth and margins)
- What's the sensitivity to WACC? (typically highest sensitivity)
- Recommend focus areas for further analysis
## Example Formulas
### Free Cash Flow Calculation
```excel
// Revenue (Year 1)
=Assumptions!B5 * (1 + Assumptions!B10)
// EBITDA
=Revenue * Assumptions!B15
// EBIT
=EBITDA - (Revenue * Assumptions!B16)
// NOPAT
=EBIT * (1 - Assumptions!B18)
// Free Cash Flow
=NOPAT + (Revenue * Assumptions!B16) - (Revenue * Assumptions!B17) - ΔNWCapital
```
### Present Value
```excel
// PV of Year 1 FCF
=FCF_Year1 / (1 + WACC)^1
// Terminal Value
=(FCF_Year5 * (1 + Terminal_Growth)) / (WACC - Terminal_Growth)
// PV of Terminal Value
=Terminal_Value / (1 + WACC)^5
```
### Sensitivity Table
```excel
// Use Excel's data table feature
// Row input: Terminal Growth Rate
// Column input: WACC
// Formula: =Enterprise_Value
```
## Example Interaction
**User:** "Create a DCF model for Tesla"
**Skill Response:**
```
I'll build a DCF valuation model for Tesla. Let me gather some inputs.
What base year revenue should we use for Tesla?
(For reference, Tesla's 2023 revenue was approximately $96.8B)
User: $96.8 billion
Great! What revenue growth rates should we assume for Years 1-5?
(Recommended: Start high and taper down, e.g., 20%, 18%, 15%, 12%, 10%)
User: 25%, 20%, 15%, 12%, 10%
What EBITDA margin should we assume?
(Tesla's recent EBITDA margin has been around 15-17%)
User: 16%
Perfect! I'll use the following assumptions:
- Base year revenue: $96.8B
- Growth rates: 25%, 20%, 15%, 12%, 10%
- EBITDA margin: 16%
- Tax rate: 21% (standard US rate)
- WACC: 10% (typical for automotive/tech)
- Terminal growth: 2.5%
- D&A: 5% of revenue
- CapEx: 4% of revenue
- NWC: 10% of revenue
Building your DCF model...
✅ DCF Model Complete!
📊 Valuation Results:
- Enterprise Value: $847.3 billion
- Terminal Value represents: 68% of EV
- Implied equity value per share: $243 (assuming 3.48B shares)
🎯 Key Insights:
- High growth assumptions drive significant value creation
- Model is sensitive to WACC (see sensitivity table)
- Terminal value is major component - validate terminal assumptions
- Revenue growth is the primary value driver
📁 Model saved to: Tesla_DCF_Model.xlsx
The sensitivity table shows Enterprise Value ranges from $612B (high WACC, low growth) to $1,124B (low WACC, high growth).
Would you like me to adjust any assumptions or add additional analysis?
```
## Common Variations
### Request: "Build a DCF but I don't have all the numbers"
**Response:**
```
No problem! I can build a DCF model with industry-average assumptions, and you can adjust later.
What company are you valuing?
User: Amazon
What's the approximate current revenue? (or I can look up recent financials)
I'll use industry-standard assumptions for a large-cap tech company:
- Revenue growth: 15%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 6% (tapering)
- EBITDA margin: 25% (tech average)
- WACC: 9%
- Terminal growth: 2.5%
I'll build the model with these defaults, and you can easily adjust the assumptions in the "Assumptions" sheet.
```
### Request: "Explain the DCF model you built"
**Response:**
```
Sure! Let me walk through the DCF model:
📊 What is a DCF?
A DCF values a company based on its future cash flows, discounted to present value.
🔢 The Model:
1. Projects free cash flow for 5 years
2. Calculates a "terminal value" for years beyond Year 5
3. Discounts all cash flows to today using WACC
4. Sums everything to get Enterprise Value
💰 Key Components:
- Free Cash Flow = Cash the company generates after all investments
- WACC = Cost of capital (what investors expect to earn)
- Terminal Value = Value of cash flows beyond Year 5 (usually 60-80% of total)
⚠️ Important Notes:
- This is a simplified DCF (doesn't include debt schedules, detailed NWC)
- Garbage in, garbage out: Assumptions drive everything
- Use this as a starting point, not final answer
- Always compare to comparable company analysis (comps)
Would you like me to explain any specific part in more detail?
```
## Error Handling
### Invalid Inputs
If user provides invalid inputs:
```
⚠️ Issue detected: Terminal growth rate (4%) is >= WACC (3.5%)
This will cause a mathematical error in the terminal value calculation.
The terminal growth rate must be less than WACC.
Typical ranges:
- WACC: 7-15%
- Terminal growth: 2-3%
Would you like me to adjust these values?
```
### Missing Information
If critical information is missing:
```
I need at least the following to build a DCF:
- Company name or industry
- Approximate current revenue (or I can use industry average)
All other assumptions can use industry defaults.
Would you like me to proceed with defaults, or would you prefer to provide specific assumptions?
```
## Best Practices Embedded
This Skill follows investment banking best practices:
1. **Conservative Terminal Growth**: Default to 2.5% (GDP growth rate)
2. **Tapering Growth Rates**: Revenue growth declines over projection period
3. **Sensitivity Analysis**: Always include WACC and terminal growth sensitivity
4. **Clear Labeling**: All assumptions clearly labeled and linked
5. **Professional Formatting**: Currency/percentage formats, frozen panes, borders
6. **Audit Trail**: Formulas link back to assumptions (no hard-coded values)
7. **Reasonableness Checks**: Validate inputs before building model
## Resources
See the resources folder for:
- `dcf-template.xlsx`: Pre-built DCF template
- `REFERENCE.md`: Financial modeling best practices
- `formulas.txt`: Common DCF formulas for reference
## Limitations
This Skill creates a simplified DCF model suitable for:
- Initial valuation analysis
- Pitch decks and presentations
- Academic exercises
- Quick "back of envelope" valuations
For detailed investment committee presentations or official fairness opinions, you should:
- Add detailed debt schedules
- Include multiple scenarios (base, bull, bear)
- Add more granular operating assumptions
- Validate with third-party data
- Have a finance professional review
## Version History
- v1.0.0 (2025-10-27): Initial release with core DCF functionality

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# Skill Assets
This directory contains static assets used by this skill.
## Purpose
Assets can include:
- Configuration files (JSON, YAML)
- Data files
- Templates
- Schemas
- Test fixtures
## Guidelines
- Keep assets small and focused
- Document asset purpose and format
- Use standard file formats
- Include schema validation where applicable
## Common Asset Types
- **config.json** - Configuration templates
- **schema.json** - JSON schemas
- **template.yaml** - YAML templates
- **test-data.json** - Test fixtures

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# Skill References
This directory contains reference materials that enhance this skill's capabilities.
## Purpose
References can include:
- Code examples
- Style guides
- Best practices documentation
- Template files
- Configuration examples
## Guidelines
- Keep references concise and actionable
- Use markdown for documentation
- Include clear examples
- Link to external resources when appropriate
## Types of References
- **examples.md** - Usage examples
- **style-guide.md** - Coding standards
- **templates/** - Reusable templates
- **patterns.md** - Design patterns

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# DCF Modeling Best Practices
## Overview
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis is the foundation of corporate valuation. This guide outlines best practices for building professional DCF models.
## Model Structure
### 1. Assumptions Sheet
**Layout:**
```
Company Information
├── Name
├── Ticker
├── Base Year
└── Fiscal Year End
Revenue Assumptions
├── Base Year Revenue
├── Year 1-5 Growth Rates
└── Terminal Growth Rate
Profitability Assumptions
├── EBITDA Margin %
├── D&A as % of Revenue
└── Tax Rate %
Working Capital & CapEx
├── NWC as % of Revenue
└── CapEx as % of Revenue
Discount Rate
└── WACC %
```
**Best Practices:**
- Color-code assumptions (blue = inputs, black = formulas)
- Document all assumptions with sources
- Use reasonable ranges (check industry averages)
- Include sensitivity ranges for key variables
---
### 2. Free Cash Flow Projections
**Calculation Flow:**
```
Revenue
× EBITDA Margin
= EBITDA
- Depreciation & Amortization
= EBIT
× (1 - Tax Rate)
= NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)
+ Depreciation & Amortization (add back non-cash)
- Capital Expenditures
- Increase in Net Working Capital
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow
```
**Key Formulas:**
Revenue Projection:
```excel
=Base_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y1) * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y2) * ...
```
Or year-by-year:
```excel
Year 1: =Base_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y1)
Year 2: =Year1_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y2)
```
Free Cash Flow:
```excel
=NOPAT + DA - CapEx - Delta_NWC
```
**Best Practices:**
- Link all formulas to Assumptions sheet
- Never hard-code values in projection sheet
- Use consistent time periods (fiscal years, not calendar)
- Check that FCF is positive by Year 3-5
---
### 3. Valuation Calculations
**Present Value of FCF:**
```excel
PV_Year1 = FCF_Year1 / (1 + WACC)^1
PV_Year2 = FCF_Year2 / (1 + WACC)^2
...
PV_Year5 = FCF_Year5 / (1 + WACC)^5
Sum_PV_FCF = SUM(PV_Year1:PV_Year5)
```
**Terminal Value:**
```
Gordon Growth Model:
TV = FCF_Year5 * (1 + Terminal_Growth) / (WACC - Terminal_Growth)
PV_TV = TV / (1 + WACC)^5
```
**Enterprise Value:**
```
EV = Sum_PV_FCF + PV_TV
```
**Equity Value:**
```
Equity Value = EV - Net Debt + Non-Operating Assets
```
**Best Practices:**
- Terminal value typically 60-80% of EV (if >80%, revisit assumptions)
- Terminal growth rate usually 2-3% (long-term GDP growth)
- WACC typically 7-15% depending on industry and risk
- Always sanity-check: Does the implied valuation make sense vs comps?
---
### 4. Sensitivity Analysis
**Two-Way Table:**
- **Rows**: WACC (vary ±2% from base case)
- **Columns**: Terminal Growth (vary from 1.5% to 3.5%)
- **Output**: Enterprise Value at each combination
**Excel Data Table:**
```excel
1. Create table with WACC in left column, Terminal Growth in top row
2. Reference Enterprise Value formula in top-left cell
3. Select entire table
4. Data → What-If Analysis → Data Table
5. Row input: Terminal Growth cell
6. Column input: WACC cell
7. OK → Table populates automatically
```
**Best Practices:**
- Use realistic ranges (don't test WACC of 1% or 50%)
- Apply conditional formatting (green = high value, red = low value)
- Add "base case" marker to highlight your primary assumption
- Include 3-4 variations typically
---
## Common Assumptions by Industry
### Technology (SaaS)
- Revenue Growth: 20-40% (early stage), 10-20% (mature)
- EBITDA Margin: 20-30%
- WACC: 9-12%
- Terminal Growth: 2.5-3%
### Consumer Goods
- Revenue Growth: 3-8%
- EBITDA Margin: 15-25%
- WACC: 7-9%
- Terminal Growth: 2-2.5%
### Healthcare
- Revenue Growth: 5-12%
- EBITDA Margin: 18-28%
- WACC: 8-10%
- Terminal Growth: 2.5-3%
### Industrials
- Revenue Growth: 3-7%
- EBITDA Margin: 10-18%
- WACC: 7-9%
- Terminal Growth: 2-2.5%
---
## Validation Checks
Before finalizing your DCF:
### 1. Reasonableness Checks
- [ ] Revenue CAGR is achievable (check historical and industry average)
- [ ] EBITDA margin is in line with industry (check public comps)
- [ ] CapEx as % of revenue is reasonable (3-5% typical, higher for growth)
- [ ] Terminal growth ≤ Long-term GDP growth (2-3%)
- [ ] WACC is appropriate for risk profile
### 2. Mathematical Checks
- [ ] Terminal growth < WACC (model breaks if g ≥ WACC)
- [ ] All formulas link to Assumptions (no hard-coded values)
- [ ] Sum of percentages = 100% where applicable
- [ ] No circular references
### 3. Output Checks
- [ ] Terminal value is 60-80% of EV (not >90%)
- [ ] Implied valuation is reasonable vs public comps
- [ ] Sensitivity table shows reasonable range (not wild swings)
- [ ] Sign of FCF is positive in out-years
---
## Common Mistakes to Avoid
### 1. Over-Optimistic Growth
❌ **Mistake**: Assuming 30% revenue growth indefinitely
✅ **Fix**: Taper growth rates (30% → 20% → 15% → 10% → 5%)
### 2. Ignoring Working Capital
❌ **Mistake**: Setting NWC change to zero
✅ **Fix**: Model NWC as % of revenue (typically 10-15%)
### 3. Terminal Growth Too High
❌ **Mistake**: Using 5% terminal growth
✅ **Fix**: Use 2-3% (long-term GDP growth rate)
### 4. Not Linking Formulas
❌ **Mistake**: Hard-coding values in projection sheet
✅ **Fix**: Link all cells to Assumptions sheet
### 5. Ignoring CapEx
❌ **Mistake**: Minimal CapEx assumption
✅ **Fix**: Model realistic CapEx (3-5% of revenue, higher for growth companies)
---
## Advanced Techniques
### 1. Multiple Scenarios
Create 3 scenarios in separate columns:
- **Base Case**: Most likely assumptions
- **Upside**: Optimistic assumptions (+20% growth, +200bps margin)
- **Downside**: Conservative assumptions (-20% growth, -200bps margin)
### 2. Detailed Working Capital
Instead of NWC as % of revenue, model components:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) for receivables
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) for inventory
- Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) for payables
### 3. Explicit CapEx Build
Instead of CapEx as % of revenue, model:
- Maintenance CapEx (keep operations running)
- Growth CapEx (support revenue growth)
- Total CapEx = Maintenance + Growth
### 4. Multiple Exit Methods
Calculate terminal value using both:
- Gordon Growth Model (perpetuity method)
- Exit Multiple Method (exit EV/EBITDA)
Compare results for reasonableness.
---
## Formatting Standards
### Colors
- **Blue**: User inputs (assumptions)
- **Black**: Formulas (calculations)
- **Green**: Positive values (revenue, profit)
- **Red**: Negative values (expenses, outflows)
### Number Formats
- **Currency**: $1,234,567 or $1.2M
- **Percentages**: 15.0% (one decimal)
- **Multipliers**: 10.5x (one decimal)
### Structure
- Freeze top row and left column
- Bold headers
- Borders around key sections
- Subtotals and totals clearly labeled
---
## Resources & Further Reading
### Industry Data
- **CapIQ / Bloomberg**: For public company data
- **PitchBook / Preqin**: For private company data
- **Damodaran (NYU)**: Industry WACC and margin data
### Academic Resources
- **"Valuation" by McKinsey**: Industry standard textbook
- **"Investment Valuation" by Aswath Damodaran**: Comprehensive guide
- **CFA Institute**: DCF methodology resources
### Online Tools
- **Damodaran Online**: Free industry data and tools
- **FRED (Federal Reserve)**: Economic data (GDP growth, interest rates)
- **Yahoo Finance / Google Finance**: Public company financials
---
## Version History
- v1.0.0 (2025-10-27): Initial best practices guide

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# Skill Scripts
This directory contains optional helper scripts that support this skill's functionality.
## Purpose
Scripts here can be:
- Referenced by the skill for automation
- Used as examples for users
- Executed during skill activation
## Guidelines
- All scripts should be well-documented
- Include usage examples in comments
- Make scripts executable (`chmod +x`)
- Use `#!/bin/bash` or `#!/usr/bin/env python3` shebangs
## Adding Scripts
1. Create script file (e.g., `analyze.sh`, `process.py`)
2. Add documentation header
3. Make executable: `chmod +x script-name.sh`
4. Test thoroughly before committing