7.3 KiB
7.3 KiB
DCF Modeling Best Practices
Overview
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis is the foundation of corporate valuation. This guide outlines best practices for building professional DCF models.
Model Structure
1. Assumptions Sheet
Layout:
Company Information
├── Name
├── Ticker
├── Base Year
└── Fiscal Year End
Revenue Assumptions
├── Base Year Revenue
├── Year 1-5 Growth Rates
└── Terminal Growth Rate
Profitability Assumptions
├── EBITDA Margin %
├── D&A as % of Revenue
└── Tax Rate %
Working Capital & CapEx
├── NWC as % of Revenue
└── CapEx as % of Revenue
Discount Rate
└── WACC %
Best Practices:
- Color-code assumptions (blue = inputs, black = formulas)
- Document all assumptions with sources
- Use reasonable ranges (check industry averages)
- Include sensitivity ranges for key variables
2. Free Cash Flow Projections
Calculation Flow:
Revenue
× EBITDA Margin
= EBITDA
- Depreciation & Amortization
= EBIT
× (1 - Tax Rate)
= NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)
+ Depreciation & Amortization (add back non-cash)
- Capital Expenditures
- Increase in Net Working Capital
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Key Formulas:
Revenue Projection:
=Base_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y1) * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y2) * ...
Or year-by-year:
Year 1: =Base_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y1)
Year 2: =Year1_Revenue * (1 + Growth_Rate_Y2)
Free Cash Flow:
=NOPAT + DA - CapEx - Delta_NWC
Best Practices:
- Link all formulas to Assumptions sheet
- Never hard-code values in projection sheet
- Use consistent time periods (fiscal years, not calendar)
- Check that FCF is positive by Year 3-5
3. Valuation Calculations
Present Value of FCF:
PV_Year1 = FCF_Year1 / (1 + WACC)^1
PV_Year2 = FCF_Year2 / (1 + WACC)^2
...
PV_Year5 = FCF_Year5 / (1 + WACC)^5
Sum_PV_FCF = SUM(PV_Year1:PV_Year5)
Terminal Value:
Gordon Growth Model:
TV = FCF_Year5 * (1 + Terminal_Growth) / (WACC - Terminal_Growth)
PV_TV = TV / (1 + WACC)^5
Enterprise Value:
EV = Sum_PV_FCF + PV_TV
Equity Value:
Equity Value = EV - Net Debt + Non-Operating Assets
Best Practices:
- Terminal value typically 60-80% of EV (if >80%, revisit assumptions)
- Terminal growth rate usually 2-3% (long-term GDP growth)
- WACC typically 7-15% depending on industry and risk
- Always sanity-check: Does the implied valuation make sense vs comps?
4. Sensitivity Analysis
Two-Way Table:
- Rows: WACC (vary ±2% from base case)
- Columns: Terminal Growth (vary from 1.5% to 3.5%)
- Output: Enterprise Value at each combination
Excel Data Table:
1. Create table with WACC in left column, Terminal Growth in top row
2. Reference Enterprise Value formula in top-left cell
3. Select entire table
4. Data → What-If Analysis → Data Table
5. Row input: Terminal Growth cell
6. Column input: WACC cell
7. OK → Table populates automatically
Best Practices:
- Use realistic ranges (don't test WACC of 1% or 50%)
- Apply conditional formatting (green = high value, red = low value)
- Add "base case" marker to highlight your primary assumption
- Include 3-4 variations typically
Common Assumptions by Industry
Technology (SaaS)
- Revenue Growth: 20-40% (early stage), 10-20% (mature)
- EBITDA Margin: 20-30%
- WACC: 9-12%
- Terminal Growth: 2.5-3%
Consumer Goods
- Revenue Growth: 3-8%
- EBITDA Margin: 15-25%
- WACC: 7-9%
- Terminal Growth: 2-2.5%
Healthcare
- Revenue Growth: 5-12%
- EBITDA Margin: 18-28%
- WACC: 8-10%
- Terminal Growth: 2.5-3%
Industrials
- Revenue Growth: 3-7%
- EBITDA Margin: 10-18%
- WACC: 7-9%
- Terminal Growth: 2-2.5%
Validation Checks
Before finalizing your DCF:
1. Reasonableness Checks
- Revenue CAGR is achievable (check historical and industry average)
- EBITDA margin is in line with industry (check public comps)
- CapEx as % of revenue is reasonable (3-5% typical, higher for growth)
- Terminal growth ≤ Long-term GDP growth (2-3%)
- WACC is appropriate for risk profile
2. Mathematical Checks
- Terminal growth < WACC (model breaks if g ≥ WACC)
- All formulas link to Assumptions (no hard-coded values)
- Sum of percentages = 100% where applicable
- No circular references
3. Output Checks
- Terminal value is 60-80% of EV (not >90%)
- Implied valuation is reasonable vs public comps
- Sensitivity table shows reasonable range (not wild swings)
- Sign of FCF is positive in out-years
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Over-Optimistic Growth
❌ Mistake: Assuming 30% revenue growth indefinitely ✅ Fix: Taper growth rates (30% → 20% → 15% → 10% → 5%)
2. Ignoring Working Capital
❌ Mistake: Setting NWC change to zero ✅ Fix: Model NWC as % of revenue (typically 10-15%)
3. Terminal Growth Too High
❌ Mistake: Using 5% terminal growth ✅ Fix: Use 2-3% (long-term GDP growth rate)
4. Not Linking Formulas
❌ Mistake: Hard-coding values in projection sheet ✅ Fix: Link all cells to Assumptions sheet
5. Ignoring CapEx
❌ Mistake: Minimal CapEx assumption ✅ Fix: Model realistic CapEx (3-5% of revenue, higher for growth companies)
Advanced Techniques
1. Multiple Scenarios
Create 3 scenarios in separate columns:
- Base Case: Most likely assumptions
- Upside: Optimistic assumptions (+20% growth, +200bps margin)
- Downside: Conservative assumptions (-20% growth, -200bps margin)
2. Detailed Working Capital
Instead of NWC as % of revenue, model components:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) for receivables
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) for inventory
- Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) for payables
3. Explicit CapEx Build
Instead of CapEx as % of revenue, model:
- Maintenance CapEx (keep operations running)
- Growth CapEx (support revenue growth)
- Total CapEx = Maintenance + Growth
4. Multiple Exit Methods
Calculate terminal value using both:
- Gordon Growth Model (perpetuity method)
- Exit Multiple Method (exit EV/EBITDA)
Compare results for reasonableness.
Formatting Standards
Colors
- Blue: User inputs (assumptions)
- Black: Formulas (calculations)
- Green: Positive values (revenue, profit)
- Red: Negative values (expenses, outflows)
Number Formats
- Currency: $1,234,567 or $1.2M
- Percentages: 15.0% (one decimal)
- Multipliers: 10.5x (one decimal)
Structure
- Freeze top row and left column
- Bold headers
- Borders around key sections
- Subtotals and totals clearly labeled
Resources & Further Reading
Industry Data
- CapIQ / Bloomberg: For public company data
- PitchBook / Preqin: For private company data
- Damodaran (NYU): Industry WACC and margin data
Academic Resources
- "Valuation" by McKinsey: Industry standard textbook
- "Investment Valuation" by Aswath Damodaran: Comprehensive guide
- CFA Institute: DCF methodology resources
Online Tools
- Damodaran Online: Free industry data and tools
- FRED (Federal Reserve): Economic data (GDP growth, interest rates)
- Yahoo Finance / Google Finance: Public company financials
Version History
- v1.0.0 (2025-10-27): Initial best practices guide