31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
31 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
---
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name: forecast-modeling
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description: Use when designing, tuning, or auditing revenue forecast models.
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---
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# Forecast Modeling System Skill
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## When to Use
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- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
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- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
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- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.
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## Framework
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1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
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2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
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3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
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4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
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5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.
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## Templates
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- Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs.
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- Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values).
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- Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history).
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## Tips
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- Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability.
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- Pair with `variance-analysis` skill to recalibrate after each cycle.
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- Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews.
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---
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