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skills/market-scenario-modeler/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: market-scenario-modeler
+description: Toolkit for building TAM/SAM/SOM models, sensitivity analyses, and narrative-ready
+  visuals.
+---
+
+# Market Scenario Modeler Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Translating research findings into financial models and strategic scenarios.
+- Stress-testing revenue or adoption assumptions for planning cycles.
+- Packaging insights for finance, product, and executive stakeholders.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Assumption Library** – document data sources, CAGR, penetration, pricing, channel mix.
+2. **Scenario Matrix** – base, upside, downside cases with drivers (pricing, win rate, expansion, macro).
+3. **Sensitivity Analysis** – tornado charts, Monte Carlo snippets, or sliders for key variables.
+4. **Visualization Layer** – waterfall, area, and heat maps tying numbers to narratives.
+5. **Decision Hooks** – highlight trigger points, required investments, and guardrails.
+
+## Templates
+- Spreadsheet/notebook skeleton with clearly named inputs/outputs.
+- Slide templates for TAM/SAM/SOM, share shifts, and investment asks.
+- One-pager summary translating scenarios into actions and risks.
+
+## Tips
+- Keep assumptions auditable with source links and timestamps.
+- Align with finance on currency, inflation, and exchange assumptions before publishing.
+- Pair with `run-market-landscape-study` for turnkey modeling assets.
+
+---