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Zhongwei Li
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skills/rapid-convergence/reference/baseline-metrics.md
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skills/rapid-convergence/reference/baseline-metrics.md
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# Achieving Strong Baseline Metrics
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**Purpose**: How to achieve V_meta(s₀) ≥ 0.40 for rapid convergence
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**Impact**: Strong baseline reduces iterations by 2-3 (40-60% time savings)
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---
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## V_meta Baseline Formula
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```
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V_meta(s₀) = 0.4 × completeness +
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0.3 × transferability +
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0.3 × automation_effectiveness
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Where (at iteration 0):
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- completeness = initial_coverage / target_coverage
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- transferability = existing_patterns_reusable / total_patterns_needed
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- automation_effectiveness = identified_automation_ops / automation_opportunities
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```
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**Target**: V_meta(s₀) ≥ 0.40
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---
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## Component 1: Completeness (40% weight)
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**Definition**: Initial taxonomy/pattern coverage
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**Calculation**:
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```
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completeness = initial_categories / estimated_final_categories
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```
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**Achieve ≥0.50 by**:
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1. Comprehensive data analysis (3-5 hours)
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2. Create initial taxonomy (10-15 categories)
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3. Classify ≥70% of observed cases
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**Example (Bootstrap-003)**:
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```
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Iteration 0 taxonomy: 10 categories
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Estimated final: 12-13 categories
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Completeness: 10/12.5 = 0.80
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Contribution: 0.4 × 0.80 = 0.32 ✅
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```
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---
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## Component 2: Transferability (30% weight)
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**Definition**: Reusability of existing patterns/knowledge
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**Calculation**:
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```
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transferability = (borrowed_patterns + existing_knowledge) / total_patterns_needed
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```
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**Achieve ≥0.30 by**:
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1. Research prior art (1-2 hours)
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2. Identify similar methodologies
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3. Document reusable patterns
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**Example (Bootstrap-003)**:
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```
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Borrowed from industry: 5 error patterns
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Existing knowledge: Error taxonomy basics
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Total patterns needed: ~10
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Transferability: 5/10 = 0.50
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Contribution: 0.3 × 0.50 = 0.15 ✅
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```
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---
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## Component 3: Automation Effectiveness (30% weight)
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**Definition**: Early identification of automation opportunities
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**Calculation**:
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```
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automation_effectiveness = identified_high_ROI_tools / expected_tool_count
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```
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**Achieve ≥0.30 by**:
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1. Analyze high-frequency tasks (1-2 hours)
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2. Identify top 3-5 automation candidates
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3. Estimate ROI (>5x preferred)
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**Example (Bootstrap-003)**:
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```
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Identified in iteration 0: 3 tools
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- validate-path.sh: 65.2% prevention, 61x ROI
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- check-file-size.sh: 100% prevention, 31.6x ROI
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- check-read-before-write.sh: 100% prevention, 26.2x ROI
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Expected final tool count: ~3
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Automation effectiveness: 3/3 = 1.0
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Contribution: 0.3 × 1.0 = 0.30 ✅
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```
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---
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## Worked Example: Bootstrap-003
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### Iteration 0 Investment: 120 min
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**Data Analysis** (60 min):
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- Queried session history: 1,336 errors
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- Calculated error rate: 5.78%
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- Identified frequency distribution
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**Taxonomy Creation** (40 min):
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- Created 10 initial categories
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- Classified 1,056/1,336 errors (79.1%)
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- Estimated 2-3 more categories needed
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**Pattern Research** (15 min):
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- Reviewed industry error taxonomies
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- Identified 5 reusable patterns
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- Documented error handling best practices
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**Automation Identification** (5 min):
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- Top 3 opportunities obvious from data:
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1. File-not-found: 250 errors (18.7%)
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2. File-size-exceeded: 84 errors (6.3%)
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3. Write-before-read: 70 errors (5.2%)
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### V_meta(s₀) Calculation
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```
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Completeness: 10/12.5 = 0.80
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Transferability: 5/10 = 0.50
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Automation: 3/3 = 1.0
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V_meta(s₀) = 0.4 × 0.80 +
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0.3 × 0.50 +
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0.3 × 1.0
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= 0.32 + 0.15 + 0.30
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= 0.77 ✅✅ (far exceeds 0.40 target)
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```
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**Result**: 3 iterations total (rapid convergence)
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---
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## Contrast: Bootstrap-002 (Weak Baseline)
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### Iteration 0 Investment: 60 min
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**Coverage Measurement** (30 min):
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- Ran coverage analysis: 72.1%
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- Counted tests: 590
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- No systematic approach documented
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**Pattern Identification** (20 min):
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- Wrote 3 ad-hoc tests
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- Noted duplication issues
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- No pattern library yet
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**No Prior Research** (0 min):
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- Started from scratch
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- No borrowed patterns
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**No Automation Planning** (10 min):
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- Vague ideas about coverage tools
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- No concrete automation identified
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### V_meta(s₀) Calculation
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```
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Completeness: 0/8 patterns = 0.00 (none documented)
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Transferability: 0/8 = 0.00 (no research)
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Automation: 0/3 tools = 0.00 (none identified)
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V_meta(s₀) = 0.4 × 0.00 +
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0.3 × 0.00 +
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0.3 × 0.00
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= 0.00 ❌ (far below 0.40 target)
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```
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**Result**: 6 iterations total (standard convergence)
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---
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## Achieving V_meta(s₀) ≥ 0.40: Checklist
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### Completeness Target: ≥0.50
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**Tasks**:
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- [ ] Analyze ALL available data (3-5 hours)
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- [ ] Create initial taxonomy/pattern library (10-15 items)
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- [ ] Classify ≥70% of observed cases
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- [ ] Estimate final taxonomy size
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- [ ] Calculate: initial_count / estimated_final ≥ 0.50?
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**Time**: 3-5 hours
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**Contribution**: 0.4 × 0.50 = 0.20
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---
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### Transferability Target: ≥0.30
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**Tasks**:
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- [ ] Research prior art (1-2 hours)
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- [ ] Identify similar methodologies
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- [ ] Document borrowed patterns (≥30% reusable)
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- [ ] List existing knowledge applicable
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- [ ] Calculate: borrowed / total_needed ≥ 0.30?
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**Time**: 1-2 hours
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**Contribution**: 0.3 × 0.30 = 0.09
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---
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### Automation Target: ≥0.30
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**Tasks**:
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- [ ] Analyze task frequency (1 hour)
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- [ ] Identify top 3-5 automation candidates
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- [ ] Estimate ROI for each (>5x preferred)
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- [ ] Document automation plan
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- [ ] Calculate: identified / expected ≥ 0.30?
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**Time**: 1-2 hours
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**Contribution**: 0.3 × 0.30 = 0.09
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---
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### Total Baseline Investment
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**Minimum**: 5-9 hours for V_meta(s₀) = 0.38-0.40
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**Recommended**: 6-10 hours for V_meta(s₀) = 0.45-0.55
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**Aggressive**: 8-12 hours for V_meta(s₀) = 0.60-0.80
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**ROI**: 5-9 hours investment → Save 10-15 hours overall (2-3x)
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---
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## Quick Assessment: Can You Achieve 0.40?
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**Question 1**: Do you have quantitative data to analyze?
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- YES: Proceed with completeness analysis
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- NO: Gather data first (delays rapid convergence)
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**Question 2**: Does prior art exist in this domain?
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- YES: Research and document (1-2 hours)
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- NO: Lower transferability expected (<0.20)
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**Question 3**: Are high-frequency patterns obvious?
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- YES: Identify automation opportunities (1 hour)
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- NO: Requires deeper analysis (adds time)
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**Scoring**:
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- **3 YES**: V_meta(s₀) ≥ 0.40 achievable (5-9 hours)
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- **2 YES**: V_meta(s₀) = 0.30-0.40 (7-12 hours)
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- **0-1 YES**: V_meta(s₀) < 0.30 (not rapid convergence candidate)
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---
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## Common Pitfalls
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### ❌ Insufficient Data Analysis
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**Symptom**: Analyzing <50% of available data
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**Impact**: Low completeness (<0.40)
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**Fix**: Comprehensive analysis (3-5 hours)
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**Example**:
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```
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❌ Analyzed 200/1,336 errors → 5 categories → completeness = 0.38
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✅ Analyzed 1,336/1,336 errors → 10 categories → completeness = 0.80
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```
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---
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### ❌ Skipping Prior Art Research
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**Symptom**: Starting from scratch
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**Impact**: Zero transferability
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**Fix**: 1-2 hours research
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**Example**:
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```
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❌ No research → 0 borrowed patterns → transferability = 0.00
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✅ Research industry taxonomies → 5 patterns → transferability = 0.50
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```
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---
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### ❌ Vague Automation Ideas
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**Symptom**: "Maybe we could automate X"
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**Impact**: Low automation score
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**Fix**: Concrete identification + ROI estimate
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**Example**:
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```
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❌ "Could automate coverage" → automation = 0.10
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✅ "Coverage gap analyzer, 30x speedup, 6x ROI" → automation = 0.33
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```
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---
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## Measurement Tools
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**Completeness**:
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```bash
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# Count initial categories
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initial=$(grep "^##" taxonomy.md | wc -l)
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# Estimate final (from analysis)
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estimated=12
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# Calculate
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echo "scale=2; $initial / $estimated" | bc
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# Target: ≥0.50
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```
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**Transferability**:
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```bash
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# Count borrowed patterns
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borrowed=$(grep "Source:" patterns.md | grep -v "Original" | wc -l)
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# Estimate total needed
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total=10
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# Calculate
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echo "scale=2; $borrowed / $total" | bc
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# Target: ≥0.30
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```
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**Automation**:
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```bash
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# Count identified tools
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identified=$(ls scripts/ | wc -l)
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# Estimate final count
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expected=3
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# Calculate
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echo "scale=2; $identified / $expected" | bc
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# Target: ≥0.30
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```
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---
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**Source**: BAIME Rapid Convergence Framework
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**Target**: V_meta(s₀) ≥ 0.40 for 3-4 iteration convergence
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**Investment**: 5-10 hours in iteration 0
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**ROI**: 2-3x (saves 10-15 hours overall)
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