zhongwei/gh-tenequm-claude-plugins-founder-playbook
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Actions Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity
Files
master
gh-tenequm-claude-plugins-f…/skills/skill/references/founder-playbook.md
Zhongwei Li e34af73680 Initial commit
2025-11-30 09:01:12 +08:00

18 KiB
Raw Permalink Blame History

2025 Founder Playbook

Complete survival guide for pre-revenue technical founders navigating the current startup landscape.

The 2025 Reality Check

What's Changed

AI-Driven Transformation

Traction Gauntlet

  • 2021's "idea funding" era is over
  • Pre-seed requires MVP + users; median pre-seed raise: $700K (Metal.so 2025)
  • Seed rounds require $10K+ MRR with 10%+ monthly growth
  • Series A crunch is real: Only 15.4% of seed-funded startups raise Series A within 2 years—down from 30.6% for 2018 cohorts (Carta/SaaStr, May 2025)
  • Time between rounds: Seed→Series A now 2.2 years (Carta Q3 2025)

YC Dynamics (2025)

Pre-Revenue Funding Reality (Right Side Capital Management survey, July 2024, n=110 VCs)

  • 46.3% of investors will fund pre-revenue at pre-seed
  • 27.4% will fund below $150K revenue
  • MVP + demand validation is sufficient for many

What's Working Now

  • Revenue-based financing for companies with recurring revenue
  • Non-dilutive grants (NSF SBIR/STTR, corporate programs)
  • Accelerators with 0% equity (First Round PMF Method)
  • Getting paying customers before fundraising
  • Distribution-first approaches (Kellan Carter, Fuse VC: "Product won't win. Distribution will win.")

What's Not Working

  • "Big launch" strategies
  • Building in stealth for 6-12 months
  • Raising on vision alone without customer validation
  • Strategic partnerships before product-market fit

Core Principles

Paul Graham: Do Things That Don't Scale

The Foundation: All successful startups manually recruited early users.

Why Founders Resist

  1. Shyness/laziness: Prefer coding to talking to strangers
  2. Numbers seem small: "100 users won't matter"
  3. Doesn't seem "startup-like": Want scalable systems immediately

The Power of Compound Growth

  • 10 users + 10% weekly growth = 14,000 users in Year 1
  • Continue = 2 million users in Year 2
  • Focus on growth rate, not absolute numbers

"Insanely Great" Pre-Revenue = The Experience

  • Wufoo: Handwritten thank-you notes to each new user
  • Airbnb: Founders took professional photos of hosts' apartments
  • Stripe: "Give me your laptop" instant setup (Collison Installation)

Your Application

  • Respond to every customer inquiry within 1 hour
  • Over-deliver on setup and onboarding
  • Personally call users after first week
  • Make signing up "one of the best choices they ever made"

The Customer Validation Reality

Don't Ask: "Would you use this?" (Everyone says yes) Ask: "Will you pay for this now?" (Shows real commitment)

Red Flags (Fake Validation)

  • "I'd probably use it"
  • "If it were free I'd try it"
  • "That's an interesting idea"
  • "Let me think about it"

Green Flags (Real Validation)

  • "Yes, sign me up now"
  • "When can I start?"
  • "Can I pay annually for a discount?"
  • Pulls out credit card unprompted

The Mom Test Questions

From Rob Fitzpatrick's essential book:

Instead of asking about your idea, ask about their life:

  1. "Tell me about the last time you experienced [problem]"

    • Gets real stories, not hypotheticals

  2. "What have you tried to solve this?"

    • Shows if they care enough to act

  3. "What was the hardest part?"

    • Reveals real pain points

  4. "Why was that hard?"

    • Uncovers root cause

  5. "What would your ideal solution do?"

    • Customer-defined requirements

Questions That Actually Validate:

  • "Would you like to be a beta tester and give me feedback weekly?"
  • "Can I put you down for the first 10 paying customers when we launch?"
  • "Who else should I talk to about this?"

The First 100 Customers Framework

Phase 1: Customers 1-10 (Manual Everything)

Week 1-2: Identify and Research

  • Create spreadsheet of 50-100 ideal prospects
  • Research each deeply: LinkedIn, company blogs, industry forums
  • Join 5-10 communities where prospects discuss problems
  • Document exact language they use to describe pain points

Week 3-4: Personal Outreach

  • Send 10 highly personalized emails daily (not templates)
  • Show you understand their specific problem
  • Offer to solve it manually if needed (concierge MVP)
  • Goal: Get 3-5 paying customers, even if you're doing work manually

The Concierge MVP

  • Viaweb founders built stores manually for merchants
  • Learned exactly what features were needed
  • Could iterate in real-time while building

Phase 2: Customers 11-30 (Find Patterns)

Week 5-6: Document and Replicate

  • Which customer segment converts fastest?
  • Document your sales conversations
  • What objections? What resonates?
  • Build 2-3 case studies from successful customers

Week 7-8: Optimize Process

  • Double down on highest-converting channel
  • Create standard onboarding process (keep high-touch)
  • Build referral mechanism
  • Goal: Achieve 10%+ weekly customer growth

Phase 3: Customers 31-100 (Systematize)

  • Write sales playbook: Exact pitch that works
  • Document objections + responses
  • Create onboarding checklist
  • Build FAQ from customer questions
  • Start testing second acquisition channel

Qualifying Customers

Michael Seibel's Framework

Ask 4-5 qualifying questions:

  1. "How are you solving this problem today?"

    • If "I'm not," it's not painful enough

  2. "How much time/money does this problem cost you?"

    • Quantify the pain

  3. "Have you looked for solutions?"

    • Active seeking = qualified buyer

  4. "What's your budget for solving this?"

    • Willingness to pay test

  5. "How soon do you need this solved?"

    • Urgency indicator

Only pursue prospects who give the "right" answers—those experiencing acute pain with budget and urgency.

Runway Management

The Survival Math

Calculate Weekly

  • Cash in bank: $____
  • Weekly burn: $____
  • Current runway: ____ weeks
  • Monthly revenue: $____

Critical Thresholds

  • <3 months runway = point of no return
  • <2 months = must plan orderly shutdown
  • Never go insolvent—personal liability attaches

Default Alive or Default Dead

From Paul Graham:

Default Alive: If revenue growth continues and expenses stay flat, will you be profitable before running out of money?

Default Dead: If you're default dead, you need to either:

  1. Grow revenue faster
  2. Cut expenses
  3. Raise money

There is no fourth option.

Extending Runway

Revenue (Best)

  • Get paying customers ASAP
  • Offer annual prepay (12 months for price of 10)
  • Sell pilot programs to enterprise ($5K-25K)

Cut Burn

  • What can you stop doing?
  • What tools can you cancel?
  • Can you reduce salary temporarily?

Non-Dilutive Capital

  • Grants (NSF SBIR, corporate programs)
  • Revenue-based financing
  • Government programs

Fundraising (Last Resort Pre-PMF)

  • Only after demonstrating traction
  • Requires 5-10 paying customers minimum

Common Founder Mistakes

1. Building Without Talking to Users (38% of failures)

"No market need" is the #1 reason startups fail (CB Insights, 2021).

The Trap: Get glowing feedback for 9 months, launch to crickets.

The Fix: Ask "Will you pay now?" and track who converts.

2. Running Out of Cash (38% of failures)

"Ran out of cash" is the #2 reason startups fail (CB Insights, 2021).

The Trap: Underestimate burn, overestimate fundraising timeline.

YC's Warning: Never let runway go below 3 months without a clear plan.

3. Premature Scaling (70% of failures)

Premature scaling is the most common cause of startup death (Startup Genome Report).

The Trap: Hiring sales team before finding repeatable sales process.

The Fix: Founders do sales until process is documented and repeatable.

4. The "Big Launch" Fantasy

The Trap: Coordinating press coverage, expecting users to flood in.

Paul Graham: "Think of successful startups. How many launches do you remember? All you need is initial core users."

5. Building in Stealth

The Trap: "If I share my idea, someone will steal it."

Michael Seibel: "Launch now. Your motivating lie about what customers want becomes deadly if you don't test it fast."

6. Ignoring Unit Economics

The Trap: "We'll figure out monetization later."

Reality: Investors check CAC, LTV, gross margin by customer 50. If these don't work, you won't raise.

Track from Customer 1:

  • Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
  • Lifetime Value (LTV)
  • Churn rate
  • Gross margin (aim for 70%+ in software)
  • Target: LTV/CAC > 3, payback < 12 months

7. Not Charging Early Enough

The Trap: "We need 1,000 users before we can charge."

Jason Lemkin: "Charge from day 1. Even $10/month tells you if the pain is real."

Fundraising Hierarchy (Pre-Revenue)

1. Revenue (Best—Zero Dilution)

Get paying customers ASAP, even at non-scalable rates.

2. Non-Dilutive Grants (Excellent)

Federal Programs

  • NSF SBIR/STTR: $200M+ annually, $250K-$1M
  • DOE: Clean tech, energy innovation
  • NIH: Healthcare, biotech

Corporate Programs

  • Google for Startups: Cloud credits + cash
  • Microsoft for Startups: $120K+ value
  • AWS Activate: $100K credits

3. Accelerators (Good—0-7% Equity)

Zero Equity

  • First Round PMF Method: 4-day intensive, free
  • NSF I-Corps: $50K + training

Low Equity

  • Y Combinator: $500K for 7%
  • Techstars: $120K for 6%

4. Angel Investors (Moderate—10-20%)

$50K-500K typical for pre-revenue with first customers.

5. VC (Last Resort Pre-Revenue—20-30%)

2025 VCs require traction. Pre-seed needs 5-10 paying customers.

Solo Founder Strategies

Advantages

  • AI as co-founder: Handle tasks that previously required teammates
  • Faster decisions: No co-founder debates
  • Full ownership: Maintain control and equity
  • Lean execution: Lower burn rate

Specific Tactics

1. Build Your "Virtual Co-Founder" Network

  • 3-5 advisors who fill skill gaps
  • Async communication (Loom, voice memos)
  • Founder communities (YC Startup School, indie hackers)

2. Ruthless Scope Reduction

  • ONE customer segment only
  • ONE core feature exceptionally well
  • ONE channel until it's working

3. Time Blocking

  • 40% building (coding, design)
  • 40% customer development (sales, support, interviews)
  • 20% operations (finance, admin)

4. Leverage, Don't Build

  • No-code tools before coding
  • Fractional specialists for non-core work
  • Buy infrastructure (Stripe, Plaid, Twilio)

5. Combat Isolation

  • Weekly co-working with other founders
  • Monthly advisor check-ins
  • Daily async updates in communities

Contrarian Takes: What Conventional Wisdom Gets Wrong

"You need a co-founder"

Reality: Solo founders are 2.6x more likely to own ongoing, for-profit ventures than teams of 3+ co-founders (Greenberg & Mollick 2018, Wharton/NYU). Of 6,191 startups with successful exits (IPO or M&A), slightly more than half had solo founders.

The paradox: Solo founders were 35% of all startups in 2024 but only 17% of those closing VC rounds (Carta 2025). VCs have bias, not data.

Better question: "Can you hire for skill gaps instead of giving away equity?"

"Build a great product and users will come"

Reality: Distribution advantage is increasingly more important than product differentiation, especially as AI commoditizes products faster.

Justin Kan (Twitch): "First time founders focus on product, second time founders focus on distribution."

Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund): Secured $80K from 6 clients BEFORE building product.

"Move fast and break things"

Reality: Users in 2025 won't tolerate subpar experiences. Ship small scope, high quality.

Better: Velocity (speed + direction) matters more than speed alone.

"Raise as much as possible"

Reality: Premature scaling remains the leading cause of startup death. Time between funding rounds hit decade highs in 2024.

Better question: "What's the minimum capital needed to reach the next meaningful milestone?"

"You need revenue to raise pre-seed"

Reality: 46% of pre-seed investors will fund pre-revenue. MVP + demand validation is sufficient for many.

What you actually need: 5-10 paying customers OR strong evidence of demand.

"AI startups are sure bets"

Reality: While AI captures 50%+ of VC dollars, concentration means most AI startups still fail. Defensibility matters more than differentiation.

Better question: "What's your moat when foundation models do this natively in 12 months?"

"Never give advice, only ask questions"

Reality: Pure non-directive coaching frustrates founders who lack information. Know when to switch modes.

Better: 80% questions, 20% direct advice—and signal the mode shift explicitly.

"Long-term coaching relationships are best"

Reality: Solution-focused research shows 4-10 sessions is optimal. After that, dependency develops.

Better: Set end dates and transition to peer accountability.

Distribution-First vs. Product-First

When distribution-first works:

  • Products are undifferentiated
  • Founder has existing audience
  • Regulatory advantage exists
  • Capital requirements are high

When product-first works:

  • Technical differentiation is the moat
  • Market is unproven
  • Novel tech requires validation
  • Viral mechanics are possible

Product-Market Fit Signals

Signs You're Getting Close

  1. Customers use product weekly without prompting
  2. Retention curve flattens (week 4-8)
  3. Customers refer others unprompted
  4. Revenue grows 10%+ monthly
  5. You can predict why customers buy
  6. Sales cycle shortening
  7. Inbound interest increasing

Signs You're NOT There

  1. Sign up but don't activate
  2. Churn >10% monthly (B2B)
  3. Sales require heavy discounting
  4. "Interesting" but don't use regularly
  5. Each customer wants different features
  6. Linear growth, not exponential
  7. You dread customer calls

The PMF Test

Rahul Vohra (Superhuman): Ask users "How would you feel if you could no longer use this product?"

  • <40% "very disappointed": No PMF

  • 40% "very disappointed": You have PMF

  • Target 50%+ for strong PMF

Prioritization Framework

The Eisenhower Matrix for Founders

Do First (Urgent + Important)

  • Sales calls with qualified prospects
  • Customer support for paying users
  • Fixing bugs that block usage
  • Payroll/critical obligations

Schedule (Important, Not Urgent)

  • Customer development interviews
  • Building next MVP iteration
  • Documenting sales process
  • Advisor check-ins

Delegate (Urgent, Not Important)

  • Bookkeeping (use Pilot, Bench)
  • Design (Fiverr for non-critical)
  • Admin (virtual assistant)

Eliminate (Neither)

  • Networking events (unless customers attend)
  • "Thought leadership" content
  • Perfect website/branding
  • Non-critical feature requests

The "Hell Yes or No" Filter

Before saying yes to anything, ask:

  1. Does this directly get me customers or revenue this month?
  2. Does this extend my runway?
  3. Does this validate/invalidate a core hypothesis?

If not "hell yes" to at least one, say no.

Mental Health & Resilience

The Reality (2025 Survey Data)

Non-Negotiables

Sleep: 7-8 hours (decision quality depends on it) Exercise: 30 min, 4x/week minimum Boundaries: No work after 8pm, one full day off/week Connection: Protect time with people who recharge you

Warning Signs

Physical: <6 hours sleep, frequent illness, weight change Emotional: Cynicism, irritability, can't enjoy anything Cognitive: Can't focus, indecisive, making mistakes

If 3+ are true: Take 3-day break, talk to therapist, reach out to mentor.

Key Reading

  • Paul Graham: "Do Things That Don't Scale", "Default Alive or Default Dead"
  • Rob Fitzpatrick: The Mom Test
  • YC Startup School: Free online course + community
  • Indie Hackers: indiehackers.com (solo founder community)
Reference in New Issue View Git Blame Copy Permalink