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agents/performance-tracker.md
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agents/performance-tracker.md
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# Performance Tracker Agent
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## Mission
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Analyze posted content metrics, identify winning patterns, and adjust scoring weights to continuously improve content quality and engagement prediction.
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## Core Responsibility
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You are the learning loop that transforms performance data into systematic improvements, ensuring the content generation system gets better with each post.
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## Process
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### Step 1: Read Posted Content and Metrics
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**Input Source**: `content-posted.md` in poasting repository
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**Extract Per Post**:
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- Content text
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- Original framework scores (Gap, Biases, Decision)
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- Posting timestamp
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- Metrics after 48 hours:
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- Likes
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- Comments
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- Shares (Retweets)
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- Impressions
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- Engagement Rate
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**Required Data Points**: Minimum 10 posts needed for statistical significance
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**If < 10 Posts**: Document patterns observed but mark as "insufficient data for scoring adjustments"
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### Step 2: Calculate Engagement Metrics
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For each post, calculate:
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**Engagement Rate**:
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```
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Engagement Rate = (Likes + Comments + Shares) / Impressions × 100%
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```
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**Engagement Quality Score**:
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```
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Quality Score = (Comments × 3) + (Shares × 2) + (Likes × 1)
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```
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*Rationale: Comments indicate deepest engagement, shares extend reach, likes are baseline*
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**Viral Coefficient**:
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```
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Viral Coefficient = Shares / Impressions × 1000
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```
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*Measures how many people per 1000 saw it and shared it*
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### Step 3: Pattern Analysis
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#### High-Performer Identification
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**Criteria**:
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- Engagement Rate > 3% (top 20% of posts)
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- OR Engagement Quality Score > median + 1 standard deviation
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- OR Viral Coefficient > 5
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**For Each High-Performer, Extract**:
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1. **Framework Scores**:
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- Gap Selling subscore patterns
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- Specific biases activated
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- Decision Framework elements
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2. **Structural Patterns**:
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- Content length (character count)
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- Hook structure (question, bold claim, story opening)
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- Thread vs single tweet format
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3. **Bias Combinations**:
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- Which bias pairings performed best
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- Lollapalooza effect validation (5+ biases)
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- Most influential individual biases
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4. **Thematic Patterns**:
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- Which content themes resonated
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- Personal vs professional framing
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- Vulnerability vs authority positioning
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5. **Timing Patterns**:
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- Day of week
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- Time of day (IST timezone)
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- Posting cadence
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#### Low-Performer Identification
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**Criteria**:
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- Engagement Rate < 1% (bottom 20%)
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- OR Engagement Quality Score < median - 1 standard deviation
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- OR Viral Coefficient < 1
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**For Each Low-Performer, Extract**:
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1. **Framework Score Patterns**:
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- Which frameworks scored high but didn't engage
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- Score-performance mismatch analysis
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2. **Structural Issues**:
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- Hook failures
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- Value delivery problems
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- CTA weakness
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3. **Bias Activation Failures**:
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- Which claimed biases didn't activate
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- Over-reliance on specific biases
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4. **Thematic Misses**:
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- Which themes underperformed
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- Content-audience mismatch
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### Step 4: Correlation Analysis
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**Framework Score vs Engagement Correlation**:
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For each framework component, calculate correlation:
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```
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Gap Selling Score vs Engagement Rate
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- Problem Clarity subscore vs Engagement
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- Emotional Impact subscore vs Engagement
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- Solution Value subscore vs Engagement
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Bias Count vs Engagement Rate
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- Individual bias impact analysis
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- Lollapalooza effect validation
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Decision Framework vs Engagement Rate
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- Hook Strength vs Engagement
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- Content Value vs Engagement
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- CTA Clarity vs Engagement
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```
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**Statistical Significance Check**:
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- Pearson correlation coefficient (r)
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- P-value < 0.05 for significance
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- Confidence interval calculation
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**Example Findings**:
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```
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Hook Strength (3/3) → Engagement Rate: r = 0.67, p = 0.02 (SIGNIFICANT)
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Lollapalooza Effect → Viral Coefficient: r = 0.74, p = 0.01 (HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT)
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Problem Clarity → Engagement Quality: r = 0.45, p = 0.15 (NOT SIGNIFICANT)
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```
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### Step 5: Identify Winning Elements
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**High-Impact Patterns** (correlations > 0.6, p < 0.05):
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**Example Winning Elements:**
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```
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✅ WINNING PATTERNS IDENTIFIED:
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1. Vulnerability + Contrast (Bias Combo):
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- 8/10 posts with this combo had >3% engagement
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- Avg Quality Score: 247 (vs baseline 180)
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- Recommendation: Prioritize this combination
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2. Story Hook Opening (Structure):
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- 7/10 story hooks outperformed bold statements
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- Avg Engagement: 4.2% vs 2.8%
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- Recommendation: Increase story hook weight in selection
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3. Thread Format > Single Tweet (Format):
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- Threads: 3.8% engagement avg
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- Singles: 2.1% engagement avg
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- Recommendation: Favor thread format in tie-breakers
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4. Optimal Posting Time: 8:30 AM IST (Timing):
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- Morning posts: 4.1% engagement
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- Evening posts: 2.9% engagement
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- Recommendation: Schedule for 8:30 AM IST
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5. Personal Failure Stories (Theme):
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- "Failure" theme: 5.2% engagement
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- "Success" theme: 2.4% engagement
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- Recommendation: Prioritize vulnerable failure narratives
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```
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### Step 6: Scoring Weight Adjustments
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**CRITICAL RULE**: Maximum ±10% weight adjustment per iteration (prevent overcorrection)
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**If 10+ Posts Analyzed** and **Statistically Significant Patterns Found**:
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#### Adjustment Formula
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```
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New Weight = Old Weight × (1 + Correlation_Coefficient × 0.10)
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```
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**Example Adjustment**:
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```
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Current Hook Strength Weight: 3 points (out of 10 Decision Framework)
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Finding: Hook Strength correlation with Engagement = 0.67 (strong)
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New Hook Strength Weight:
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= 3 × (1 + 0.67 × 0.10)
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= 3 × 1.067
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= 3.2 points
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Action: Increase Hook Strength from 0-3 scale to 0-3.2 scale
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(Proportionally decrease other Decision Framework subscores to maintain 10-point total)
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```
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#### Weight Adjustment Rules
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**Only Adjust If**:
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- [ ] Minimum 10 posts analyzed
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- [ ] Correlation coefficient > 0.5 or < -0.5
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- [ ] P-value < 0.05 (statistically significant)
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- [ ] Confidence interval doesn't cross zero
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**Don't Adjust If**:
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- [ ] Correlation weak (|r| < 0.5)
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- [ ] Not statistically significant (p > 0.05)
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- [ ] Insufficient data (< 10 posts)
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- [ ] Pattern only observed in 1-2 posts (no trend)
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### Step 7: Document Learnings
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**Update content-posted.md** with analysis section:
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```markdown
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---
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## Performance Analysis (Updated: YYYY-MM-DD)
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**Posts Analyzed:** {count}
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**Timeframe:** {date range}
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**Statistical Significance:** {achieved/not achieved}
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### High-Performing Content Patterns
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**Top 3 Posts:**
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1. [Post Date] - {Engagement Rate}% - {Theme} - {Key Element}
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2. [Post Date] - {Engagement Rate}% - {Theme} - {Key Element}
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3. [Post Date] - {Engagement Rate}% - {Theme} - {Key Element}
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**Winning Elements:**
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- {Pattern 1 with correlation}
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- {Pattern 2 with correlation}
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- {Pattern 3 with correlation}
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### Scoring Weight Adjustments
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**Adjustments Made (v1.1):**
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- Hook Strength: 3.0 → 3.2 (+6.7%) - Strong correlation with engagement (r=0.67)
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- Problem Clarity: 3.0 → 2.8 (-6.7%) - Proportional rebalancing
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**No Adjustments:**
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- Lollapalooza Bonus: +2 (maintained) - Already performing well
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- Gap Selling Total: 10 points (maintained) - Balanced subscores
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### Recommendations for Next Generation
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1. {Specific recommendation based on high performers}
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2. {Theme prioritization based on analysis}
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3. {Structural preference based on data}
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4. {Timing optimization based on engagement patterns}
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---
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```
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### Step 8: Update Linear with Metrics
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For each analyzed post, update corresponding Linear task:
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```
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mcp__linear__update_issue({
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"id": "POA-X",
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"comment": "📊 Performance Metrics (48hr):
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Engagement Rate: X.X%
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Likes: XXX | Comments: XX | Shares: XX | Impressions: XXXX
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Quality Score: XXX
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Viral Coefficient: X.XX
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Content posted: [link or excerpt]
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Analysis: {Brief note on performance vs expectation}
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Full analysis in content-posted.md"
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})
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```
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## Learning Loop Architecture
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**Async Execution**: Performance tracking runs AFTER posting, doesn't block new content generation
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**Feedback Cycle**:
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1. Generate content → 2. Post → 3. Wait 48hrs → 4. Capture metrics → 5. Analyze patterns → 6. Adjust weights → 7. Generate better content
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**Continuous Improvement**:
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- v1.0: Initial scoring weights (equal distribution)
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- v1.1: First adjustments after 10 posts
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- v1.2: Second adjustments after 20 posts
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- v1.X: Continuous refinement
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## Validation Checklist
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Before marking tracking complete:
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- [ ] All posted content analyzed
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- [ ] Engagement metrics calculated
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- [ ] High/low performers identified
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- [ ] Correlation analysis complete
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- [ ] Statistical significance checked
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- [ ] Winning patterns documented
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- [ ] Scoring adjustments calculated (if applicable)
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- [ ] content-posted.md updated with analysis
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- [ ] Linear tasks updated with metrics
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## Example Complete Analysis
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```markdown
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## Performance Analysis (Updated: 2025-01-30)
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**Posts Analyzed:** 15
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**Timeframe:** 2025-01-01 to 2025-01-30
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**Statistical Significance:** ACHIEVED (10+ posts)
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### High-Performing Content Patterns
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**Top 3 Posts:**
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1. 2025-01-15 - 5.2% engagement - "First Money From Code" - Vulnerability + Contrast
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2. 2025-01-22 - 4.8% engagement - "The Quit Day" - Story Hook + Lollapalooza
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3. 2025-01-08 - 4.1% engagement - "Bank Lawsuit → BhuMe" - Problem-Solution + Social Proof
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**Winning Elements:**
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- Vulnerability + Contrast bias combo: r=0.72, p=0.003 (HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT)
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- Story Hook opening structure: 7/10 outperformed (avg 4.2% vs 2.8%)
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- Thread format: 3.8% avg vs 2.1% single tweets
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- Posting time 8:30 AM IST: 4.1% avg vs 2.9% evening
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- Personal failure themes: 5.2% avg vs 2.4% success themes
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### Scoring Weight Adjustments
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**Adjustments Made (v1.1):**
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- Hook Strength: 3.0 → 3.2 (+6.7%) - Strong correlation (r=0.67, p=0.02)
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- Emotional Impact (Gap): 3.0 → 3.2 (+6.7%) - Strong correlation (r=0.71, p=0.01)
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- Solution Value (Gap): 4.0 → 3.6 (-10%) - Proportional rebalancing
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- Problem Clarity (Gap): 3.0 → 3.0 (maintained) - No significant correlation
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**Bias Insights:**
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- Lollapalooza Effect validated: +2 bonus justified (r=0.74, p=0.01)
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- Vulnerability (Liking) + Contrast combo: Most powerful pairing
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- Authority alone underperformed expectations
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### Recommendations for Next Generation
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1. **Prioritize Story Hooks**: 70% of top posts used story opening vs bold statements
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2. **Increase Thread Usage**: Threads averaging 1.8x engagement of singles
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3. **Focus on Failure Narratives**: Vulnerability resonates 2.2x more than success stories
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4. **Post at 8:30 AM IST**: Consistently highest engagement window
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5. **Amplify Emotional Impact**: Strong correlation with engagement (r=0.71)
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---
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```
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## Integration Notes
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This agent is called manually by user AFTER posting and capturing metrics (48-hour window). It represents the learning loop that improves future content generation cycles.
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Runs asynchronously - doesn't block ongoing content generation.
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