gh-lyndonkl-claude/skills/environmental-scanning-foresight/resources/template.md

Environmental Scanning & Foresight Templates

Quick-start templates for PESTLE scanning, weak signal detection, scenario development, and signpost setting.

Workflow

Environmental Scanning Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define scope and focus areas
- [ ] Step 2: Scan PESTLE forces and trends
- [ ] Step 3: Detect and validate weak signals
- [ ] Step 4: Assess cross-impacts and interactions
- [ ] Step 5: Develop scenarios for plausible futures
- [ ] Step 6: Set signposts and adaptive triggers

Step 1: Define scope and focus areas

Use Scanning Scope Definition to clarify scanning theme, geographic scope, time horizon, and key uncertainties.

Step 2: Scan PESTLE forces and trends

Systematically collect trends using PESTLE Scanning Framework across Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental dimensions.

Step 3: Detect and validate weak signals

Identify early indicators using Weak Signal Template with validation criteria for credibility, evidence, and impact potential.

Step 4: Assess cross-impacts and interactions

Map trend interactions using Cross-Impact Analysis to identify reinforcing, offsetting, and cascading effects.

Step 5: Develop scenarios for plausible futures

Create 3-4 scenarios using Scenario Development Template built around critical uncertainties.

Step 6: Set signposts and adaptive triggers

Define leading indicators using Signpost Definition Template with specific thresholds and monitoring cadence.

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Scanning Scope Definition

Scanning Theme:

• What aspect of environment? (Technology disruption, market evolution, regulatory shift, competitive dynamics, etc.)
• What strategic questions? (Should we enter this market? Will our business model remain viable? What capabilities will we need?)

Geographic Scope:

• Global (worldwide trends)
• Regional (continent, trade bloc)
• National (country-specific)
• Local (city, state, industry cluster)

Time Horizon:

• Short-term (1-2 years): Operational planning, current trend extrapolation
• Medium-term (3-5 years): Strategic planning, inflection points
• Long-term (5-10+ years): Visioning, transformational change, paradigm shifts

Key Uncertainties (what we don't know that matters most): 1. 2. 3.

Scanning Objectives (what decisions will this inform?):

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PESTLE Scanning Framework

Political

Government & Policy:

• Election outcomes and implications:
• Policy priorities and shifts:
• Political stability/instability:
• Geopolitical tensions/alignments:

Regulation & Governance:

• Regulatory proposals in pipeline:
• Deregulation or liberalization trends:
• Government intervention patterns:
• International agreements/treaties:

Sources: Government announcements, policy think tanks, political risk indices, diplomatic cables

Economic

Macroeconomic Conditions:

• GDP growth/contraction forecasts:
• Inflation and interest rate trends:
• Employment and labor market:
• Currency and exchange rates:

Market & Trade:

• Trade policy and tariff changes:
• Foreign direct investment flows:
• Supply chain and logistics costs:
• Capital availability and credit:

Income & Spending:

• Income distribution and inequality:
• Consumer spending patterns:
• Savings and debt levels:

Sources: Central bank reports, economic forecasts (IMF, World Bank), market data, trade statistics

Social

Demographics:

• Population growth/decline:
• Age structure shifts (aging, youth bulge):
• Migration patterns:
• Urbanization trends:

Values & Culture:

• Shifting social values (sustainability, equity, individualism):
• Trust in institutions:
• Cultural movements and identity politics:
• Generational attitudes (Gen Z, Millennials):

Lifestyle & Behavior:

• Work-life balance preferences:
• Health and wellness trends:
• Education and skill development:
• Consumption patterns (sharing economy, minimalism):

Sources: Census data, survey research (Pew, Gallup), social media trends, cultural commentary

Technological

Innovation & R&D:

• Breakthrough technologies emerging:
• R&D investment levels and focus:
• Patent filings in relevant domains:
• Technology adoption curves:

Digital & Automation:

• Digitalization of industry:
• AI and machine learning applications:
• Robotics and automation:
• Cybersecurity and data privacy tech:

Infrastructure:

• Broadband and connectivity expansion:
• Cloud and edge computing:
• Energy infrastructure and grids:
• Transportation and logistics tech:

Sources: Technology journals, patent databases, VC investment reports, tech conferences, research labs

Legal

Regulatory Frameworks:

• New laws and regulations:
• Regulatory enforcement trends:
• Compliance requirements expanding/contracting:
• Cross-border regulatory harmonization:

Standards & Liability:

• Industry standards evolving:
• Liability and litigation trends:
• Intellectual property regime changes:
• Data protection and privacy laws:

Sources: Legislative trackers, regulatory agency announcements, legal journals, compliance advisories

Environmental

Climate & Weather:

• Climate change impacts (temperature, precipitation, extremes):
• Physical risk to assets and operations:
• Climate policy and carbon pricing:
• Renewable energy adoption:

Resources & Pollution:

• Natural resource availability (water, minerals, land):
• Pollution and waste management:
• Circular economy and recycling:
• Biodiversity and ecosystem health:

Sustainability:

• Corporate sustainability commitments:
• Investor ESG pressure:
• Consumer demand for sustainable products:
• Supply chain sustainability requirements:

Sources: IPCC reports, climate models, environmental agencies, sustainability indices, ESG ratings

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Weak Signal Template

Signal Identified: [Brief description of anomaly or early indicator]

Source & Date:

• Where detected:
• When observed:
• Source credibility (high/medium/low):

Why This Is a Weak Signal (not mainstream yet):

• Diverges from current expectations:
• Early/emergent (not widely recognized):
• Edge of system (niche, subculture, fringe):

Validation Criteria:

• Source credibility: Is source reliable and knowledgeable?
• Supporting evidence: Are there multiple independent confirmations?
• Plausibility: Is amplification mechanism realistic?
• Impact if scaled: Would this matter significantly?

Potential Amplification Path (how could this scale?):

Impact Assessment (if signal amplifies):

• Opportunities:
• Threats:
• Affected stakeholders:

Monitoring Plan:

• Track indicator:
• Frequency:
• Trigger for escalation:

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Cross-Impact Analysis

Map how trends interact. Use matrix to identify reinforcing (accelerate), offsetting (tension), and cascading (trigger) relationships.

Key Trends Identified (from PESTLE scan): 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Interaction Matrix:

Trend	1	2	3	4	5
1	-
2		-
3			-
4				-
5					-

Legend: + = Reinforcing (accelerates), - = Offsetting (inhibits), → = Cascading (triggers), 0 = Independent

Critical Uncertainties (high impact + high uncertainty):

Predetermined Elements (high impact + low uncertainty):

Feedback Loops (self-reinforcing or self-limiting):

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Scenario Development Template

Scenario Structure (2x2 Matrix)

Critical Uncertainty 1 (Axis 1): [e.g., "Speed of Technology Adoption"]

• High:
• Low:

Critical Uncertainty 2 (Axis 2): [e.g., "Regulatory Stringency"]

• High:
• Low:

Four Scenarios:

Scenario A: [Name] (High Axis 1 + High Axis 2)

• Probability/Plausibility:

• Key Drivers:

• Narrative (2-3 paragraphs describing this future):

• Strategic Implications:

Scenario B: [Name] (High Axis 1 + Low Axis 2)

• Probability/Plausibility:

• Key Drivers:

• Narrative:

• Strategic Implications:

Scenario C: [Name] (Low Axis 1 + High Axis 2)

• Probability/Plausibility:

• Key Drivers:

• Narrative:

• Strategic Implications:

Scenario D: [Name] (Low Axis 1 + Low Axis 2)

• Probability/Plausibility:

• Key Drivers:

• Narrative:

• Strategic Implications:

Wild Cards (low probability, high impact events not captured in scenarios):

No-Regrets Moves (strategies that work across all scenarios):

Hedges (actions that protect in some scenarios):

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Signpost Definition Template

Signposts are leading indicators that trigger adaptive responses before trends fully materialize.

Signpost 1:

• What to monitor: [Specific observable indicator]
• Current baseline:
• Threshold for action: [Specific value or condition]
• Action triggered: [What we do when threshold crossed]
• Data source:
• Update frequency:
• Lead time (how far ahead of outcome?):

Signpost 2:

• What to monitor:
• Current baseline:
• Threshold for action:
• Action triggered:
• Data source:
• Update frequency:
• Lead time:

Signpost 3:

• What to monitor:
• Current baseline:
• Threshold for action:
• Action triggered:
• Data source:
• Update frequency:
• Lead time:

Monitoring Cadence:

• Weekly (fast-moving indicators)
• Monthly (medium-term trends)
• Quarterly (strategic review)
• Annually (comprehensive environmental scan update)

Dashboard Location: [Where are signposts tracked?]

Review Process: [Who reviews? What triggers escalation?]