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Zhongwei Li
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skills/environmental-scanning-foresight/resources/template.md
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skills/environmental-scanning-foresight/resources/template.md
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# Environmental Scanning & Foresight Templates
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Quick-start templates for PESTLE scanning, weak signal detection, scenario development, and signpost setting.
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## Workflow
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```
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Environmental Scanning Progress:
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- [ ] Step 1: Define scope and focus areas
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- [ ] Step 2: Scan PESTLE forces and trends
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- [ ] Step 3: Detect and validate weak signals
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- [ ] Step 4: Assess cross-impacts and interactions
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- [ ] Step 5: Develop scenarios for plausible futures
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- [ ] Step 6: Set signposts and adaptive triggers
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```
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**Step 1: Define scope and focus areas**
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Use [Scanning Scope Definition](#scanning-scope-definition) to clarify scanning theme, geographic scope, time horizon, and key uncertainties.
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**Step 2: Scan PESTLE forces and trends**
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Systematically collect trends using [PESTLE Scanning Framework](#pestle-scanning-framework) across Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental dimensions.
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**Step 3: Detect and validate weak signals**
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Identify early indicators using [Weak Signal Template](#weak-signal-template) with validation criteria for credibility, evidence, and impact potential.
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**Step 4: Assess cross-impacts and interactions**
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Map trend interactions using [Cross-Impact Analysis](#cross-impact-analysis) to identify reinforcing, offsetting, and cascading effects.
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**Step 5: Develop scenarios for plausible futures**
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Create 3-4 scenarios using [Scenario Development Template](#scenario-development-template) built around critical uncertainties.
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**Step 6: Set signposts and adaptive triggers**
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Define leading indicators using [Signpost Definition Template](#signpost-definition-template) with specific thresholds and monitoring cadence.
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---
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## Scanning Scope Definition
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**Scanning Theme**:
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- What aspect of environment? (Technology disruption, market evolution, regulatory shift, competitive dynamics, etc.)
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- What strategic questions? (Should we enter this market? Will our business model remain viable? What capabilities will we need?)
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**Geographic Scope**:
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- [ ] Global (worldwide trends)
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- [ ] Regional (continent, trade bloc)
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- [ ] National (country-specific)
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- [ ] Local (city, state, industry cluster)
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**Time Horizon**:
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- [ ] Short-term (1-2 years): Operational planning, current trend extrapolation
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- [ ] Medium-term (3-5 years): Strategic planning, inflection points
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- [ ] Long-term (5-10+ years): Visioning, transformational change, paradigm shifts
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**Key Uncertainties** (what we don't know that matters most):
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1.
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2.
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3.
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**Scanning Objectives** (what decisions will this inform?):
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-
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---
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## PESTLE Scanning Framework
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### Political
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**Government & Policy**:
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- Election outcomes and implications:
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- Policy priorities and shifts:
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- Political stability/instability:
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- Geopolitical tensions/alignments:
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**Regulation & Governance**:
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- Regulatory proposals in pipeline:
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- Deregulation or liberalization trends:
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- Government intervention patterns:
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- International agreements/treaties:
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**Sources**: Government announcements, policy think tanks, political risk indices, diplomatic cables
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### Economic
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**Macroeconomic Conditions**:
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- GDP growth/contraction forecasts:
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- Inflation and interest rate trends:
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- Employment and labor market:
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- Currency and exchange rates:
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**Market & Trade**:
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- Trade policy and tariff changes:
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- Foreign direct investment flows:
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- Supply chain and logistics costs:
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- Capital availability and credit:
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**Income & Spending**:
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- Income distribution and inequality:
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- Consumer spending patterns:
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- Savings and debt levels:
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**Sources**: Central bank reports, economic forecasts (IMF, World Bank), market data, trade statistics
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### Social
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**Demographics**:
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- Population growth/decline:
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- Age structure shifts (aging, youth bulge):
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- Migration patterns:
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- Urbanization trends:
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**Values & Culture**:
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- Shifting social values (sustainability, equity, individualism):
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- Trust in institutions:
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- Cultural movements and identity politics:
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- Generational attitudes (Gen Z, Millennials):
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**Lifestyle & Behavior**:
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- Work-life balance preferences:
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- Health and wellness trends:
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- Education and skill development:
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- Consumption patterns (sharing economy, minimalism):
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**Sources**: Census data, survey research (Pew, Gallup), social media trends, cultural commentary
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### Technological
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**Innovation & R&D**:
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- Breakthrough technologies emerging:
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- R&D investment levels and focus:
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- Patent filings in relevant domains:
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- Technology adoption curves:
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**Digital & Automation**:
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- Digitalization of industry:
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- AI and machine learning applications:
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- Robotics and automation:
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- Cybersecurity and data privacy tech:
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**Infrastructure**:
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- Broadband and connectivity expansion:
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- Cloud and edge computing:
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- Energy infrastructure and grids:
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- Transportation and logistics tech:
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**Sources**: Technology journals, patent databases, VC investment reports, tech conferences, research labs
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### Legal
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**Regulatory Frameworks**:
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- New laws and regulations:
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- Regulatory enforcement trends:
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- Compliance requirements expanding/contracting:
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- Cross-border regulatory harmonization:
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**Standards & Liability**:
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- Industry standards evolving:
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- Liability and litigation trends:
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- Intellectual property regime changes:
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- Data protection and privacy laws:
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**Sources**: Legislative trackers, regulatory agency announcements, legal journals, compliance advisories
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### Environmental
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**Climate & Weather**:
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- Climate change impacts (temperature, precipitation, extremes):
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- Physical risk to assets and operations:
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- Climate policy and carbon pricing:
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- Renewable energy adoption:
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**Resources & Pollution**:
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- Natural resource availability (water, minerals, land):
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- Pollution and waste management:
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- Circular economy and recycling:
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- Biodiversity and ecosystem health:
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**Sustainability**:
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- Corporate sustainability commitments:
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- Investor ESG pressure:
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- Consumer demand for sustainable products:
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- Supply chain sustainability requirements:
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**Sources**: IPCC reports, climate models, environmental agencies, sustainability indices, ESG ratings
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---
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## Weak Signal Template
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**Signal Identified**: [Brief description of anomaly or early indicator]
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**Source & Date**:
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- Where detected:
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- When observed:
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- Source credibility (high/medium/low):
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**Why This Is a Weak Signal** (not mainstream yet):
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- Diverges from current expectations:
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- Early/emergent (not widely recognized):
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- Edge of system (niche, subculture, fringe):
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**Validation Criteria**:
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- [ ] Source credibility: Is source reliable and knowledgeable?
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- [ ] Supporting evidence: Are there multiple independent confirmations?
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- [ ] Plausibility: Is amplification mechanism realistic?
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- [ ] Impact if scaled: Would this matter significantly?
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**Potential Amplification Path** (how could this scale?):
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-
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**Impact Assessment** (if signal amplifies):
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- Opportunities:
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- Threats:
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- Affected stakeholders:
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**Monitoring Plan**:
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- Track indicator:
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- Frequency:
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- Trigger for escalation:
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---
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## Cross-Impact Analysis
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Map how trends interact. Use matrix to identify reinforcing (accelerate), offsetting (tension), and cascading (trigger) relationships.
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**Key Trends Identified** (from PESTLE scan):
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1.
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2.
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3.
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4.
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5.
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**Interaction Matrix**:
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| Trend | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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|-------|---|---|---|---|---|
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| **1** | - | | | | |
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| **2** | | - | | | |
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| **3** | | | - | | |
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| **4** | | | | - | |
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| **5** | | | | | - |
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Legend: **+** = Reinforcing (accelerates), **-** = Offsetting (inhibits), **→** = Cascading (triggers), **0** = Independent
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**Critical Uncertainties** (high impact + high uncertainty):
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-
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-
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**Predetermined Elements** (high impact + low uncertainty):
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-
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-
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**Feedback Loops** (self-reinforcing or self-limiting):
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-
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---
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## Scenario Development Template
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### Scenario Structure (2x2 Matrix)
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**Critical Uncertainty 1** (Axis 1): [e.g., "Speed of Technology Adoption"]
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- High:
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- Low:
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**Critical Uncertainty 2** (Axis 2): [e.g., "Regulatory Stringency"]
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- High:
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- Low:
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**Four Scenarios**:
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#### Scenario A: [Name] (High Axis 1 + High Axis 2)
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- **Probability/Plausibility**:
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- **Key Drivers**:
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- **Narrative** (2-3 paragraphs describing this future):
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- **Strategic Implications**:
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#### Scenario B: [Name] (High Axis 1 + Low Axis 2)
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- **Probability/Plausibility**:
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- **Key Drivers**:
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- **Narrative**:
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- **Strategic Implications**:
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#### Scenario C: [Name] (Low Axis 1 + High Axis 2)
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- **Probability/Plausibility**:
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- **Key Drivers**:
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- **Narrative**:
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- **Strategic Implications**:
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#### Scenario D: [Name] (Low Axis 1 + Low Axis 2)
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- **Probability/Plausibility**:
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- **Key Drivers**:
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- **Narrative**:
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- **Strategic Implications**:
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**Wild Cards** (low probability, high impact events not captured in scenarios):
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-
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**No-Regrets Moves** (strategies that work across all scenarios):
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-
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**Hedges** (actions that protect in some scenarios):
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-
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---
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## Signpost Definition Template
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Signposts are leading indicators that trigger adaptive responses before trends fully materialize.
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**Signpost 1**:
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- **What to monitor**: [Specific observable indicator]
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- **Current baseline**:
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- **Threshold for action**: [Specific value or condition]
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- **Action triggered**: [What we do when threshold crossed]
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- **Data source**:
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- **Update frequency**:
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- **Lead time** (how far ahead of outcome?):
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**Signpost 2**:
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- **What to monitor**:
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- **Current baseline**:
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- **Threshold for action**:
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- **Action triggered**:
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- **Data source**:
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- **Update frequency**:
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- **Lead time**:
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**Signpost 3**:
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- **What to monitor**:
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- **Current baseline**:
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- **Threshold for action**:
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- **Action triggered**:
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- **Data source**:
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- **Update frequency**:
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- **Lead time**:
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**Monitoring Cadence**:
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- [ ] Weekly (fast-moving indicators)
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- [ ] Monthly (medium-term trends)
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- [ ] Quarterly (strategic review)
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- [ ] Annually (comprehensive environmental scan update)
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**Dashboard Location**: [Where are signposts tracked?]
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**Review Process**: [Who reviews? What triggers escalation?]
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