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+---
+name: excel-variance-analyzer
+description: |
+  Automate budget vs actual variance analysis in Excel with flagging, commentary, and executive summaries for financial reporting and FP&A teams Activates when you request "excel variance analyzer" functionality.
+allowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, Grep, Glob, Bash
+version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Excel Variance Analyzer
+
+Automates variance analysis for monthly/quarterly financial reporting and budget reviews.
+
+## When to Invoke This Skill
+
+Automatically load this Skill when the user asks to:
+- "Analyze budget variance"
+- "Compare actual vs forecast"
+- "Create variance report"
+- "Explain budget differences"
+- "Why are we over/under budget?"
+- "Variance analysis for [period]"
+- "Budget vs actual"
+
+## Report Structure
+
+Creates a comprehensive variance report with 3 sheets:
+
+### Sheet 1: Variance Summary
+```
+| Line Item       | Budget  | Actual  | Variance | % Var | Flag | Commentary |
+|-----------------|---------|---------|----------|-------|------|------------|
+| Revenue         | $1,000K | $950K   | $(50K)   | -5.0% | ⚠️   | Below plan |
+| COGS            | $600K   | $580K   | $(20K)   | -3.3% | ✅   | Favorable  |
+| Gross Profit    | $400K   | $370K   | $(30K)   | -7.5% | 🔴   | Investigate|
+| Operating Exp   | $250K   | $280K   | $30K     | 12.0% | 🔴   | Over budget|
+| EBITDA          | $150K   | $90K    | $(60K)   | -40.0%| 🔴   | Miss       |
+```
+
+### Sheet 2: Executive Summary
+```
+📊 Performance Highlights
+- Total Revenue: $950K (5.0% below budget)
+- EBITDA: $90K (40.0% below budget)
+- Key Driver: Operating expenses 12% over budget
+
+🔴 Top 5 Unfavorable Variances:
+1. EBITDA: $(60K) / -40.0%
+2. Revenue: $(50K) / -5.0%
+3. Operating Expenses: $30K / 12.0%
+4. Gross Profit: $(30K) / -7.5%
+5. Marketing: $25K / 25.0%
+
+✅ Top 5 Favorable Variances:
+1. COGS: $(20K) / -3.3%
+2. Rent: $(5K) / -10.0%
+3. Utilities: $(2K) / -8.0%
+```
+
+### Sheet 3: Trend Analysis (if multiple periods)
+```
+| Line Item | Jan Var% | Feb Var% | Mar Var% | Q1 Var% | Trend |
+|-----------|----------|----------|----------|---------|-------|
+| Revenue   | -3%      | -5%      | -7%      | -5%     | ⬇️    |
+| COGS      | -2%      | -4%      | -3%      | -3%     | ➡️    |
+```
+
+## Step-by-Step Workflow
+
+### 1. Load Data
+
+Ask the user for:
+- **Budget data**: Can be Excel file, CSV, or pasted table
+- **Actual data**: Same format as budget
+- **Period**: Month, quarter, YTD
+- **Threshold settings** (or use defaults):
+  - Percentage threshold: 10% (flag items >10% variance)
+  - Dollar threshold: $50K (flag items >$50K absolute variance)
+  - Categories to exclude: (e.g., non-cash items like depreciation)
+
+### 2. Validate Data
+
+Before analysis, check:
+- Budget and actual have matching line items
+- All values are numeric
+- No missing data for key categories (revenue, expenses, profit)
+- Budget data is reasonable (no zeros where there should be values)
+
+### 3. Calculate Variances
+
+For each line item:
+```
+Absolute Variance = Actual - Budget
+Percentage Variance = (Actual - Budget) / Budget × 100%
+
+Sign Convention:
+- Positive variance for revenue/profit = Favorable (✅)
+- Negative variance for revenue/profit = Unfavorable (🔴)
+- Positive variance for expenses = Unfavorable (🔴)
+- Negative variance for expenses = Favorable (✅)
+```
+
+### 4. Flag Material Items
+
+Apply flagging rules:
+```
+🔴 Red Flag (Critical):
+- Revenue/profit >10% below budget
+- Expenses >10% over budget
+- Absolute variance >$100K
+
+⚠️ Yellow Flag (Warning):
+- Revenue/profit 5-10% below budget
+- Expenses 5-10% over budget
+- Absolute variance $50K-$100K
+
+✅ Green (On Track):
+- Variance within ±5%
+- Absolute variance <$50K
+```
+
+### 5. Generate Commentary
+
+For each flagged item, provide automated commentary:
+
+**Revenue Below Budget:**
+```
+Revenue is $50K (5%) below budget. Possible drivers:
+- Lower than expected sales volume
+- Pricing pressure
+- Delayed revenue recognition
+- Seasonal factors
+Recommend: Review sales pipeline and backlog
+```
+
+**Expenses Over Budget:**
+```
+Operating expenses are $30K (12%) over budget. Breakdown:
+- Marketing: $25K over (new campaign)
+- Travel: $8K over
+- Utilities: $2K under
+Recommend: Review Q2 marketing spend and ROI
+```
+
+**Favorable Variances:**
+```
+COGS is $20K (3.3%) under budget. Drivers:
+- Lower raw material costs
+- Improved operational efficiency
+- Volume discounts from suppliers
+```
+
+### 6. Create Executive Summary
+
+Summarize for leadership:
+```
+📊 [Period] Financial Performance
+
+Bottom Line:
+- Revenue: [X%] vs budget ([favorable/unfavorable])
+- EBITDA: [X%] vs budget ([favorable/unfavorable])
+- Net Variance Impact: $[XXX]K
+
+Key Takeaways:
+1. [Primary driver of miss/beat]
+2. [Secondary factor]
+3. [Outlook for next period]
+
+Action Items:
+1. [Specific action needed]
+2. [Follow-up required]
+```
+
+## Example Interaction
+
+**User:** "Analyze Q1 budget vs actual"
+
+**Skill Response:**
+```
+I'll analyze your Q1 variance. Let me load the data.
+
+Do you have budget and actual data files, or would you like to paste them?
+
+User: *pastes Excel data*
+
+Perfect! I see data for Q1 2025. Setting analysis parameters:
+- Period: Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar)
+- Line items: 15 categories detected
+- Materiality threshold: ±10% or ±$50K
+
+Running variance analysis...
+
+✅ Variance Analysis Complete!
+
+📊 Q1 2025 PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
+
+🎯 Overall Results:
+- Revenue: $2,850K vs budget $3,000K (-5.0%) 🔴
+- Gross Profit: $1,110K vs budget $1,200K (-7.5%) 🔴
+- EBITDA: $270K vs budget $450K (-40.0%) 🔴
+
+📉 Key Drivers of Underperformance:
+1. Revenue Miss: $(150K) - 5% below plan
+   → Slower than expected customer acquisition
+   → Delayed Q1 enterprise deals to Q2
+
+2. Operating Expenses Over: $90K - 12% above plan
+   → Marketing campaign: $75K incremental spend
+   → Headcount additions brought forward to Q1
+
+🔍 Detailed Findings:
+
+🔴 CRITICAL VARIANCES (>10%):
+- Operating Expenses: $840K vs $750K (+12.0%) - $90K over
+- EBITDA: $270K vs $450K (-40.0%) - $180K under
+- Marketing: $325K vs $260K (+25.0%) - $65K over
+
+⚠️ WARNING VARIANCES (5-10%):
+- Revenue: $2,850K vs $3,000K (-5.0%) - $150K under
+- Gross Profit: $1,110K vs $1,200K (-7.5%) - $90K under
+
+✅ FAVORABLE VARIANCES:
+- COGS: $1,740K vs $1,800K (-3.3%) - $60K favorable
+- Facilities: $45K vs $50K (-10.0%) - $5K favorable
+
+💡 RECOMMENDATIONS:
+
+Immediate Actions:
+1. Review Q2 sales pipeline - need $150K catch-up + Q2 plan
+2. Evaluate marketing campaign ROI (Q1 spend +$65K)
+3. Assess if Q1 revenue timing shift impacts full-year plan
+
+Strategic Questions:
+1. Is Q1 revenue miss timing (shifts to Q2) or lost?
+2. Will marketing investment drive Q2-Q4 revenue?
+3. Should we adjust full-year budget guidance?
+
+📁 Report saved to: Q1_2025_Variance_Analysis.xlsx
+
+Would you like me to:
+- Add trend analysis vs Q4 2024?
+- Create forecast scenarios for Q2?
+- Drill into specific expense categories?
+```
+
+## Common Variations
+
+### Request: "Why is marketing over budget?"
+
+**Response:**
+```
+Let me drill into marketing expenses.
+
+Marketing Variance Detail:
+Budget: $260K
+Actual: $325K
+Variance: $65K (25% over)
+
+Breakdown by subcategory:
+- Digital Ads: $180K vs $150K (+$30K)
+  → Google Ads campaign expanded
+- Events: $75K vs $60K (+$15K)
+  → Added trade show booth
+- Content: $45K vs $40K (+$5K)
+  → Video production
+- Agencies: $25K vs $10K (+$15K)
+  → New creative agency retainer
+
+Primary driver: Digital ads campaign expansion (+$30K)
+
+Was this spend planned but not budgeted, or truly incremental?
+Would you like me to analyze marketing ROI?
+```
+
+### Request: "Compare last 3 months"
+
+**Response:**
+```
+I'll create a 3-month trend analysis.
+
+Revenue Trend (Budget vs Actual):
+| Month | Budget | Actual | Variance | Var% | Trend |
+|-------|--------|--------|----------|------|-------|
+| Jan   | $1,000K| $970K  | $(30K)   | -3%  | ⬇️    |
+| Feb   | $1,000K| $950K  | $(50K)   | -5%  | ⬇️    |
+| Mar   | $1,000K| $930K  | $(70K)   | -7%  | ⬇️    |
+| Q1    | $3,000K| $2,850K| $(150K)  | -5%  | ⬇️    |
+
+⚠️ ALERT: Revenue variance is worsening month-over-month
+
+This suggests a structural issue, not timing:
+- Jan: 97% of budget
+- Feb: 95% of budget
+- Mar: 93% of budget
+
+Recommendation: Immediate deep-dive on sales execution
+```
+
+## Formatting Rules
+
+The Skill applies professional formatting:
+
+### Conditional Formatting
+```
+- Green cells: Favorable variances (>5% better than budget)
+- Yellow cells: Variances within ±5%
+- Red cells: Unfavorable variances (>5% worse than budget)
+```
+
+### Number Formatting
+```
+- Currency: $1,000K or $1.0M (use K for thousands, M for millions)
+- Percentages: 1 decimal place (5.0%)
+- Variance: Show sign ($(50K) or $50K)
+```
+
+### Icons
+```
+✅ = On track / Favorable
+⚠️ = Warning / Needs attention
+🔴 = Critical / Unfavorable
+⬆️ = Improving trend
+⬇️ = Worsening trend
+➡️ = Flat trend
+```
+
+## Best Practices Embedded
+
+1. **Materiality Thresholds**: Don't flag every small variance
+2. **Commentary Not Just Numbers**: Explain "why", not just "what"
+3. **Action-Oriented**: Recommend next steps
+4. **Executive Summary**: Leadership wants top 5-10 items
+5. **Trend Analysis**: Show if variance is new or ongoing
+6. **Sign Conventions**: Consistent favorable/unfavorable labeling
+7. **Audit Trail**: Show calculations and formulas
+
+## Resources
+
+See resources folder for:
+- `REFERENCE.md`: Variance analysis best practices
+- `templates/`: Sample variance reports
+
+## Limitations
+
+This Skill provides automated variance analysis for:
+- Standard income statement formats
+- Monthly/quarterly reporting
+- Budget vs actual comparisons
+
+For more complex analysis, you may need:
+- Statistical variance analysis (standard deviations)
+- Multi-year trend analysis
+- Driver-based variance decomposition
+- Forecast vs forecast comparisons
+
+## Version History
+
+- v1.0.0 (2025-10-27): Initial release with core variance analysis functionality