Initial commit

2025-11-29 18:49:39 +08:00
commit d66fde9999
9 changed files with 3220 additions and 0 deletions
--- a/skills/prd-generator/references/metrics_frameworks.md
+++ b/skills/prd-generator/references/metrics_frameworks.md
@@ -0,0 +1,733 @@
+# Product Metrics Frameworks
+
+A comprehensive guide to choosing and implementing product metrics frameworks for measuring success.
+
+---
+
+## Table of Contents
+
+1. [Overview](#overview)
+2. [AARRR (Pirate Metrics)](#aarrr-pirate-metrics)
+3. [HEART Framework](#heart-framework)
+4. [North Star Metric](#north-star-metric)
+5. [OKRs (Objectives & Key Results)](#okrs-objectives--key-results)
+6. [Product-Market Fit Metrics](#product-market-fit-metrics)
+7. [Engagement Metrics](#engagement-metrics)
+8. [Choosing the Right Framework](#choosing-the-right-framework)
+
+---
+
+## Overview
+
+### Why Metrics Matter
+
+**Metrics help you:**
+- Measure feature success objectively
+- Make data-driven decisions
+- Align teams around shared goals
+- Identify what's working and what's not
+- Communicate impact to stakeholders
+
+### Types of Metrics
+
+**Leading Indicators:** Predict future outcomes
+- Example: Free trial sign-ups → Future revenue
+
+**Lagging Indicators:** Measure past results
+- Example: Monthly revenue, churn rate
+
+**Actionable vs. Vanity Metrics**
+- **Actionable:** Can influence through product changes (e.g., conversion rate)
+- **Vanity:** Looks good but doesn't drive decisions (e.g., total registered users)
+
+---
+
+## AARRR (Pirate Metrics)
+
+Created by Dave McClure, this framework focuses on the customer lifecycle.
+
+### The Five Stages
+
+```
+Acquisition → Activation → Retention → Revenue → Referral
+```
+
+### 1. Acquisition
+
+**What:** How do users find you?
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+- Website traffic
+- App store impressions
+- Click-through rate (CTR) from ads
+- Cost per acquisition (CPA)
+- Traffic sources (organic, paid, referral)
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- 10,000 monthly website visitors
+- CAC < $50
+- 5% CTR on paid ads
+
+**Questions to Answer:**
+- Which channels drive the most users?
+- What's our cost per channel?
+- Which campaigns convert best?
+
+---
+
+### 2. Activation
+
+**What:** Do users have a great first experience?
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+- Sign-up completion rate
+- Time to "aha moment"
+- Percentage reaching key milestone
+- Onboarding completion rate
+- Feature adoption in first session
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- 60% sign-up completion
+- 40% reach "aha moment" in first session
+- 80% complete onboarding
+
+**Questions to Answer:**
+- What does a great first experience look like?
+- Where do users drop off in onboarding?
+- How quickly do users find value?
+
+**Example "Aha Moments":**
+- **Slack:** Send your first message
+- **Dropbox:** Upload your first file
+- **Airbnb:** Complete your first booking
+
+---
+
+### 3. Retention
+
+**What:** Do users come back?
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+- Daily/Weekly/Monthly Active Users (DAU/WAU/MAU)
+- Retention curves (Day 1, Day 7, Day 30)
+- Churn rate
+- Session frequency
+- Feature usage over time
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- 40% Day 7 retention
+- 25% Day 30 retention
+- < 5% monthly churn
+
+**Cohort Analysis:**
+```
+| Cohort    | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
+|-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
+| Jan 2024  | 100%   | 45%    | 30%    | 25%    |
+| Feb 2024  | 100%   | 50%    | 35%    | 28%    |
+```
+
+**Questions to Answer:**
+- What makes users come back?
+- When do users churn?
+- How can we re-engage inactive users?
+
+---
+
+### 4. Revenue
+
+**What:** How do you monetize?
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+- Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)
+- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
+- Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
+- Conversion to paid rate
+- Upsell/cross-sell rate
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- 5% free-to-paid conversion
+- $50 ARPU
+- LTV:CAC ratio > 3:1
+
+**Formulas:**
+```
+LTV = ARPU × Average Customer Lifespan
+LTV:CAC = Lifetime Value ÷ Customer Acquisition Cost
+Churn Rate = Customers Lost ÷ Total Customers × 100
+```
+
+**Questions to Answer:**
+- Which features drive conversions?
+- What's our payback period?
+- How can we increase ARPU?
+
+---
+
+### 5. Referral
+
+**What:** Do users tell others?
+
+**Key Metrics:**
+- Viral coefficient (K-factor)
+- Net Promoter Score (NPS)
+- Referral rate
+- Social shares
+- Word-of-mouth attribution
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- 15% of users refer others
+- NPS > 50
+- K-factor > 1 (viral growth)
+
+**Formulas:**
+```
+K-factor = (Number of Invites per User) × (Conversion Rate of Invites)
+NPS = % Promoters - % Detractors
+```
+
+**Questions to Answer:**
+- Why do users refer others?
+- How can we incentivize referrals?
+- What makes us shareable?
+
+---
+
+### AARRR Example: SaaS Product
+
+| Stage | Metric | Current | Target | Actions |
+|-------|--------|---------|--------|---------|
+| Acquisition | Monthly visitors | 50,000 | 75,000 | SEO, content marketing |
+| Activation | Trial sign-ups | 5% | 8% | Improve landing page |
+| Retention | Day 30 retention | 20% | 30% | Onboarding improvements |
+| Revenue | Free-to-paid conversion | 3% | 5% | Pricing page redesign |
+| Referral | Users who refer | 8% | 15% | Referral program launch |
+
+---
+
+## HEART Framework
+
+Created by Google, focuses on user experience quality.
+
+### The Five Dimensions
+
+**HEART = Happiness + Engagement + Adoption + Retention + Task Success**
+
+---
+
+### 1. Happiness
+
+**What:** User satisfaction and perception
+
+**Metrics:**
+- Net Promoter Score (NPS)
+- Customer Satisfaction (CSAT)
+- User ratings/reviews
+- Support ticket sentiment
+- User feedback scores
+
+**Measurement Methods:**
+- Surveys (post-interaction, periodic)
+- App store ratings
+- In-app feedback forms
+- Social media sentiment
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: New checkout flow
+Happiness Metric: CSAT score
+Target: > 4.5/5 average rating
+Measurement: Post-purchase survey
+```
+
+---
+
+### 2. Engagement
+
+**What:** Level of user involvement
+
+**Metrics:**
+- Session duration
+- Pages/screens per session
+- Feature usage frequency
+- Time spent in app
+- Actions per session
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: News feed
+Engagement Metric: Daily sessions per user
+Current: 1.2 sessions/day
+Target: 2.0 sessions/day
+```
+
+---
+
+### 3. Adoption
+
+**What:** New users or feature uptake
+
+**Metrics:**
+- New user sign-ups
+- Feature adoption rate
+- Time to first use
+- Percentage of users trying new feature
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: Dark mode
+Adoption Metric: % of users enabling dark mode
+Target: 40% within 30 days of launch
+```
+
+---
+
+### 4. Retention
+
+**What:** Users returning over time
+
+**Metrics:**
+- DAU/WAU/MAU
+- Retention curves
+- Churn rate
+- Repeat usage rate
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: Collaboration tools
+Retention Metric: Week-over-week active teams
+Target: 70% of teams active weekly
+```
+
+---
+
+### 5. Task Success
+
+**What:** Can users accomplish their goals?
+
+**Metrics:**
+- Task completion rate
+- Error rate
+- Time to complete task
+- Search success rate
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: File upload
+Task Success Metric: Upload completion rate
+Current: 85%
+Target: 95%
+Error analysis: Large file timeouts
+```
+
+---
+
+### HEART Framework Template
+
+| Dimension | Goals | Signals | Metrics |
+|-----------|-------|---------|---------|
+| **Happiness** | Users love the feature | Positive feedback | NPS > 40 |
+| **Engagement** | Users interact frequently | Daily active usage | 60% DAU/MAU |
+| **Adoption** | Most users try it | Feature activation | 70% adoption |
+| **Retention** | Users keep coming back | Weekly return rate | 50% W1 retention |
+| **Task Success** | Users complete goals | Low error rate | 95% success rate |
+
+---
+
+## North Star Metric
+
+A single metric that best captures the core value you deliver to customers.
+
+### Characteristics of a Good North Star Metric
+
+1. **Reflects value delivery** to customers
+2. **Measures progress** toward your vision
+3. **Actionable** by the team
+4. **Leading indicator** of revenue
+5. **Understandable** by everyone
+
+---
+
+### Examples by Company
+
+| Company | North Star Metric | Why |
+|---------|------------------|-----|
+| **Airbnb** | Nights booked | Core value: successful stays |
+| **Spotify** | Time spent listening | Core value: music enjoyment |
+| **Slack** | Messages sent by teams | Core value: communication |
+| **Facebook** | Daily Active Users | Core value: social connection |
+| **Netflix** | Hours watched | Core value: entertainment |
+| **Uber** | Rides completed | Core value: transportation |
+| **Medium** | Total time reading | Core value: quality content |
+
+---
+
+### Finding Your North Star Metric
+
+**Step 1: Define your value proposition**
+- What core value do you deliver?
+- What's the "aha moment" for users?
+
+**Step 2: Identify the metric**
+- What measurement best captures that value?
+- Is it a leading indicator of business success?
+
+**Step 3: Validate the metric**
+- Does it correlate with revenue?
+- Can teams influence it?
+- Is it understandable?
+
+**Step 4: Set targets and track**
+- What's the current baseline?
+- What's the target growth rate?
+- How will you measure progress?
+
+---
+
+### North Star Metric Tree
+
+Break down your North Star into contributing metrics:
+
+```
+North Star: Weekly Active Users
+    ├── New User Acquisition
+    │   ├── Sign-ups
+    │   └── Onboarding completion
+    ├── Activation
+    │   └── Users reaching "aha moment"
+    └── Retention
+        ├── Week 1 retention
+        └── Week 4 retention
+```
+
+---
+
+## OKRs (Objectives & Key Results)
+
+Goal-setting framework popularized by Google.
+
+### Structure
+
+**Objective:** Qualitative, inspirational goal
+**Key Results:** Quantitative, measurable outcomes (3-5 per objective)
+
+---
+
+### Writing Good OKRs
+
+**Objective Characteristics:**
+- Inspirational and motivating
+- Qualitative
+- Time-bound (quarterly or annual)
+- Aligned with company strategy
+
+**Key Result Characteristics:**
+- Quantitative and measurable
+- Specific with clear targets
+- Ambitious but achievable
+- 3-5 per objective
+
+---
+
+### Examples
+
+#### Example 1: Growth OKR
+
+**Objective:** Become the go-to platform for small business invoicing
+
+**Key Results:**
+1. Increase monthly active businesses from 10,000 to 25,000
+2. Achieve 40% month-over-month retention
+3. Reach NPS of 50+
+4. Generate $500K MRR
+
+---
+
+#### Example 2: Product Quality OKR
+
+**Objective:** Deliver a world-class mobile experience
+
+**Key Results:**
+1. Reduce app crash rate from 2.5% to <0.5%
+2. Achieve 4.5+ star rating on both app stores
+3. Improve app load time to <2 seconds (p95)
+4. Increase mobile DAU/MAU ratio from 30% to 45%
+
+---
+
+#### Example 3: Feature Launch OKR
+
+**Objective:** Successfully launch team collaboration features
+
+**Key Results:**
+1. 60% of active users try collaboration features within 30 days
+2. 25% of users become weekly active collaborators
+3. Collaboration features drive 15% increase in paid conversions
+4. Achieve CSAT score of 4.2/5 for collaboration features
+
+---
+
+### OKR Template for PRDs
+
+```markdown
+## OKRs
+
+### Objective: [Inspirational goal]
+
+**Key Results:**
+1. [Metric 1]: Increase/decrease [current] to [target] by [date]
+2. [Metric 2]: Achieve [target value] for [metric]
+3. [Metric 3]: [Specific measurable outcome]
+
+**Tracking:**
+- Current status: [Progress report]
+- Dashboard: [Link to metrics dashboard]
+- Review cadence: [Weekly/bi-weekly]
+```
+
+---
+
+## Product-Market Fit Metrics
+
+Measuring whether you've achieved product-market fit.
+
+### Sean Ellis Test
+
+Survey question: **"How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?"**
+
+- Very disappointed
+- Somewhat disappointed
+- Not disappointed
+
+**PMF Threshold:** 40%+ answer "Very disappointed"
+
+---
+
+### Other PMF Indicators
+
+**Qualitative Signals:**
+- Users voluntarily refer others
+- Organic growth without marketing
+- High engagement and retention
+- Users find creative use cases
+- Positive unsolicited feedback
+
+**Quantitative Metrics:**
+- **Retention:** 40%+ month 1 retention
+- **NPS:** Score > 50
+- **Growth:** 10%+ month-over-month organic growth
+- **Engagement:** High DAU/MAU ratio (>40%)
+- **LTV:CAC:** Ratio > 3:1
+
+---
+
+## Engagement Metrics
+
+Deep dive into measuring user engagement.
+
+### DAU/WAU/MAU
+
+**Definitions:**
+- **DAU:** Daily Active Users (unique users in a day)
+- **WAU:** Weekly Active Users (unique users in a week)
+- **MAU:** Monthly Active Users (unique users in a month)
+
+**Ratios:**
+- **DAU/MAU:** Stickiness (how many monthly users come daily)
+- **DAU/WAU:** Daily engagement intensity
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+- **Excellent:** DAU/MAU > 50% (e.g., messaging apps)
+- **Good:** DAU/MAU = 20-50% (e.g., social media)
+- **Average:** DAU/MAU = 10-20% (e.g., utilities)
+
+---
+
+### Session Metrics
+
+**Key Measurements:**
+- **Session duration:** Time spent per session
+- **Session frequency:** Sessions per user per day/week
+- **Session depth:** Actions/pages per session
+
+**Example Targets:**
+- Session duration: > 5 minutes
+- Session frequency: 2+ sessions/day
+- Session depth: > 8 page views
+
+---
+
+### Feature Engagement
+
+**Metrics:**
+- **Adoption rate:** % of users who try the feature
+- **Active usage:** % of users actively using regularly
+- **Depth of use:** Actions per user within feature
+
+**Example:**
+```
+Feature: Document collaboration
+- Adoption: 50% of users have collaborated at least once
+- Active usage: 30% collaborate weekly
+- Depth: Average 12 collaborative edits per week
+```
+
+---
+
+## Choosing the Right Framework
+
+### Decision Matrix
+
+| Framework | Best For | Time Horizon | Complexity |
+|-----------|----------|--------------|------------|
+| **AARRR** | Growth-focused products, startups | Ongoing | Medium |
+| **HEART** | UX quality, feature launches | Per feature | Low-Medium |
+| **North Star** | Company alignment, focus | Ongoing | Low |
+| **OKRs** | Goal setting, team alignment | Quarterly | Medium-High |
+
+---
+
+### By Product Stage
+
+**Early Stage (Pre-PMF):**
+- Focus: Product-Market Fit metrics
+- Framework: AARRR (Activation & Retention focus)
+- North Star: Early engagement metric
+
+**Growth Stage (Post-PMF):**
+- Focus: Scaling user acquisition
+- Framework: Full AARRR funnel
+- North Star: Growth-oriented metric
+
+**Mature Stage:**
+- Focus: Optimization and expansion
+- Framework: HEART for features, OKRs for goals
+- North Star: Revenue or engagement metric
+
+---
+
+### By Product Type
+
+**Consumer Apps:**
+- AARRR for growth funnel
+- DAU/MAU for engagement
+- Viral coefficient for referral
+
+**B2B SaaS:**
+- ARR/MRR for revenue
+- Churn rate for retention
+- Expansion revenue for growth
+
+**Marketplace:**
+- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
+- Take rate (% of transaction)
+- Liquidity (supply/demand balance)
+
+**Content Platforms:**
+- Time spent on platform
+- Content creation rate
+- Content consumption rate
+
+---
+
+## Metrics Anti-Patterns
+
+### Common Mistakes
+
+**1. Too Many Metrics**
+- **Problem:** Tracking everything = focusing on nothing
+- **Solution:** Choose 3-5 key metrics per initiative
+
+**2. Vanity Metrics**
+- **Problem:** Total users looks good but doesn't inform decisions
+- **Solution:** Focus on active users, engagement, retention
+
+**3. Lagging Only**
+- **Problem:** Only tracking revenue = rear-view mirror
+- **Solution:** Balance with leading indicators (activation, engagement)
+
+**4. No Targets**
+- **Problem:** Tracking without goals
+- **Solution:** Set specific, time-bound targets
+
+**5. Not Segmenting**
+- **Problem:** Average metrics hide important patterns
+- **Solution:** Segment by user type, cohort, feature usage
+
+---
+
+## Metrics Template for PRDs
+
+```markdown
+## Success Metrics
+
+### North Star Metric
+**Metric:** [Your single most important metric]
+**Current:** [Baseline value]
+**Target:** [Goal value by launch + X months]
+**Why:** [Why this metric matters]
+
+### Supporting Metrics
+
+#### Acquisition
+- **Metric 1:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+- **Metric 2:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+
+#### Activation
+- **Metric 1:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+- **Metric 2:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+
+#### Retention
+- **Metric 1:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+- **Metric 2:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+
+#### Revenue (if applicable)
+- **Metric 1:** [Name] - Current: [X], Target: [Y]
+
+### Counter-Metrics
+[Metrics to ensure you're not sacrificing other areas]
+- Example: Ensure support tickets don't increase > 10%
+
+### Measurement Plan
+- **Dashboard:** [Link]
+- **Review Cadence:** [Weekly/bi-weekly]
+- **Owner:** [Name]
+```
+
+---
+
+## Resources & Tools
+
+### Analytics Platforms
+- **Amplitude:** Product analytics, retention analysis
+- **Mixpanel:** Event tracking, funnel analysis
+- **Google Analytics:** Web analytics
+- **Heap:** Auto-capture analytics
+
+### Survey Tools
+- **Delighted:** NPS surveys
+- **SurveyMonkey:** Custom surveys
+- **Typeform:** Engaging survey forms
+
+### Dashboard Tools
+- **Tableau:** Data visualization
+- **Looker:** Business intelligence
+- **Datadog:** Infrastructure metrics
+- **Metabase:** Open-source BI
+
+---
+
+## Summary
+
+**Key Takeaways:**
+
+1. **Choose frameworks** that match your product stage and goals
+2. **Balance leading and lagging** indicators
+3. **Set specific targets** with timelines
+4. **Track counter-metrics** to avoid unintended consequences
+5. **Review regularly** and iterate on what you measure
+6. **Keep it simple** - 3-5 key metrics per initiative
+7. **Align metrics** with business objectives
+8. **Make metrics actionable** - can the team influence them?
+
+**Remember:** The best metric is one that drives the right behavior and aligns your team around what matters most to users and the business.