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skills/variance-analysis/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: variance-analysis
+description: Use to attribute forecast vs actual deltas and recommend remediation
+  actions.
+---
+
+# Revenue Variance Analysis Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Preparing forecast reviews or board updates that require variance explanations.
+- Investigating misses/exceeds across segments, products, or channels.
+- Prioritizing remediation plays tied to specific variance drivers.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Driver Taxonomy** – classify deltas into volume, conversion, price/mix, churn, expansion, currency.
+2. **Attribution Logic** – define formulas for each driver and maintain consistent baselines.
+3. **Root Cause Layer** – connect drivers to operational issues (pipeline quality, capacity, enablement, macro).
+4. **Action Mapping** – translate each root cause into specific plays with owners and expected impact.
+5. **Feedback Loop** – update forecasting assumptions once variance is understood.
+
+## Templates
+- Variance waterfall chart setup instructions.
+- Driver worksheet (metric → delta → driver → root cause → owner → due date).
+- Remediation tracker with status and forecast impact.
+
+## Tips
+- Keep a glossary so stakeholders interpret drivers consistently.
+- Combine quantitative attribution with qualitative context from GTM leaders.
+- Feed learnings back to `forecast-modeling` to tighten assumptions next cycle.
+
+---