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skills/forecast-modeling/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: forecast-modeling
+description: Use when designing, tuning, or auditing revenue forecast models.
+---
+
+# Forecast Modeling System Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
+- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
+- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
+2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
+3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
+4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
+5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.
+
+## Templates
+- Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs.
+- Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values).
+- Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history).
+
+## Tips
+- Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability.
+- Pair with `variance-analysis` skill to recalibrate after each cycle.
+- Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews.
+
+---