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skills/executive-briefs/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: executive-briefs
+description: Use to craft concise revenue updates for executives and boards.
+---
+
+# Executive Brief System Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Delivering forecast updates to ELT or board audiences.
+- Summarizing revenue risks/opportunities with clear asks.
+- Packaging meeting-ready decks or memos that pull from forecast + variance analysis outputs.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Audience Lens** – capture what the audience cares about (growth, margin, cash, runway) and tailor tone.
+2. **Story Arc** – set context, state the headline (ahead/behind), outline drivers, and present mitigation plan.
+3. **Evidence Layer** – include key charts/tables with consistent formatting + footnotes.
+4. **Decision & Ask** – specify what approval, resource shift, or unblock is needed.
+5. **Appendix & Audit Trail** – link to deeper dashboards, logs, and forecast files for transparency.
+
+## Templates
+- One-slide executive summary (headline, numbers, drivers, actions).
+- Board memo outline (context, highlights, lowlights, requests).
+- Risk register snippet for ongoing tracking.
+
+## Tips
+- Use consistent metric definitions and color-coding to avoid confusion.
+- Keep main section under one page/slide, move detail to appendix.
+- Reference `variance-analysis` findings and `forecast-modeling` assumptions in footnotes.
+
+---

skills/forecast-modeling/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: forecast-modeling
+description: Use when designing, tuning, or auditing revenue forecast models.
+---
+
+# Forecast Modeling System Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
+- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
+- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
+2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
+3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
+4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
+5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.
+
+## Templates
+- Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs.
+- Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values).
+- Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history).
+
+## Tips
+- Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability.
+- Pair with `variance-analysis` skill to recalibrate after each cycle.
+- Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews.
+
+---

skills/variance-analysis/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: variance-analysis
+description: Use to attribute forecast vs actual deltas and recommend remediation
+  actions.
+---
+
+# Revenue Variance Analysis Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Preparing forecast reviews or board updates that require variance explanations.
+- Investigating misses/exceeds across segments, products, or channels.
+- Prioritizing remediation plays tied to specific variance drivers.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Driver Taxonomy** – classify deltas into volume, conversion, price/mix, churn, expansion, currency.
+2. **Attribution Logic** – define formulas for each driver and maintain consistent baselines.
+3. **Root Cause Layer** – connect drivers to operational issues (pipeline quality, capacity, enablement, macro).
+4. **Action Mapping** – translate each root cause into specific plays with owners and expected impact.
+5. **Feedback Loop** – update forecasting assumptions once variance is understood.
+
+## Templates
+- Variance waterfall chart setup instructions.
+- Driver worksheet (metric → delta → driver → root cause → owner → due date).
+- Remediation tracker with status and forecast impact.
+
+## Tips
+- Keep a glossary so stakeholders interpret drivers consistently.
+- Combine quantitative attribution with qualitative context from GTM leaders.
+- Feed learnings back to `forecast-modeling` to tighten assumptions next cycle.
+
+---