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skills/loyalty-modeling/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: loyalty-modeling
+description: Use to model economics, tiers, and impact forecasts for loyalty programs.
+---
+
+# Loyalty Modeling Toolkit Skill
+
+## When to Use
+- Designing new loyalty tiers or revamping benefits.
+- Building business cases for loyalty investments.
+- Stress-testing point liability, breakage, and ROI.
+
+## Framework
+1. **Inputs** – member base, transaction frequency, average order value, churn, CAC.
+2. **Earning Model** – simulate points accrual, mission completion, and bonus events.
+3. **Redemption Model** – estimate burn rates, cost per reward, and liability curves.
+4. **Impact Drivers** – model uplift in retention, cross-sell, referral, or ARPU.
+5. **Scenario Planning** – compare base vs optimized vs aggressive variants.
+
+## Templates
+- Driver sheet (input assumptions, tier thresholds, rewards cost).
+- Sensitivity table (goal → driver → delta → impact).
+- Executive summary page for approvals.
+
+## Tips
+- Keep calculators modular so benefits can be toggled quickly.
+- Align with finance on liability recognition + accounting treatment.
+- Pair with `plan-loyalty` command to ensure blueprint is financially sound.
+
+---