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commands/consider/second-order.md

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+---
+description: Think through consequences of consequences
+argument-hint: [action or leave blank for current context]
+---
+
+<objective>
+Apply second-order thinking to $ARGUMENTS (or the current discussion if no arguments provided).
+
+Ask: "And then what?" First-order thinking stops at immediate effects. Second-order thinking follows the chain.
+</objective>
+
+<process>
+1. State the action or decision
+2. Identify first-order effects (immediate, obvious consequences)
+3. For each first-order effect, ask "And then what happens?"
+4. Continue to third-order if significant
+5. Identify delayed consequences that change the calculus
+6. Assess whether the action is still worth it after full chain analysis
+</process>
+
+<output_format>
+**Action:** [what's being considered]
+
+**First-Order Effects:** (Immediate)
+- [Effect 1]
+- [Effect 2]
+
+**Second-Order Effects:** (And then what?)
+- [Effect 1] → leads to → [Consequence]
+- [Effect 2] → leads to → [Consequence]
+
+**Third-Order Effects:** (And then?)
+- [Key downstream consequences]
+
+**Delayed Consequences:**
+[Effects that aren't obvious initially but matter long-term]
+
+**Revised Assessment:**
+After tracing the chain, this action [is/isn't] worth it because...
+</output_format>
+
+<success_criteria>
+- Traces causal chains beyond obvious effects
+- Identifies feedback loops and unintended consequences
+- Reveals delayed costs or benefits
+- Distinguishes actions that compound well from those that don't
+- Prevents "seemed like a good idea at the time" regret
+</success_criteria>